Premiership· Regular Season - 25· · Tynecastle Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 | 0.87–2.79 | 0.61–3.06 | 1.05 | 0.19–1.91 | 0.00–2.16 | 2.880.56–5.21 |
| Shots on target | 5.82 | 3.97–7.68 | 3.47–8.18 | 3.69 | 1.99–5.40 | 1.52–5.87 | 9.514.98–14.05 |
| Total shots | 16.95 | 13.25–20.65 | 12.22–21.69 | 12.12 | 8.74–15.50 | 7.81–16.43 | 29.0720.03–38.12 |
| Shots in box | 11.66 | 9.14–14.18 | 8.28–15.04 | 6.83 | 4.53–9.13 | 3.73–9.93 | 18.4912.01–24.97 |
| Blocked shots | 4.56 | 2.98–6.15 | 2.44–6.68 | 3.18 | 1.77–4.60 | 1.28–5.09 | 7.753.73–11.77 |
| Corners | 6.66 | 4.46–8.87 | 3.86–9.46 | 4.33 | 2.35–6.30 | 1.81–6.84 | 10.995.67–16.30 |
| Possession % | 56.10 | 49.78–62.42 | 48.19–64.01 | 44.74 | 38.42–51.06 | 36.83–52.66 | — |
| Passes | 531 | 466–597 | 448–614 | 413 | 348–478 | 331–495 | 944779–1109 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.45 | 68.23–76.66 | 66.93–77.97 | 68.05 | 63.54–72.56 | 62.21–73.89 | — |
| Fouls | 10.70 | 7.85–13.56 | 6.96–14.45 | 12.80 | 9.85–15.74 | 8.94–16.66 | 23.5015.90–31.11 |
| Offsides | 1.74 | 0.53–2.95 | 0.18–3.29 | 1.47 | 0.31–2.63 | 0.00–2.96 | 3.200.16–6.25 |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 | 0.31–2.43 | 0.04–2.70 | 2.03 | 0.91–3.15 | 0.62–3.44 | 3.400.66–6.13 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.71 | 1.30–4.12 | 0.91–4.51 | 3.24 | 1.69–4.80 | 1.26–5.23 | 5.952.16–9.74 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
23%
22%
Shots on target
70%
19%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
84%
Blocked shots
62%
25%
Corners
71%
19%
Fouls
30%
63%
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
Yellow cards
26%
21%
53%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
33%
16%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+