Premiership· Regular Season - 27· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 | 0.01–1.93 | 0.00–2.19 | 1.88 | 1.02–2.74 | 0.77–2.99 | 2.850.52–5.18 |
| Shots on target | 3.78 | 1.93–5.64 | 1.43–6.14 | 5.64 | 3.93–7.34 | 3.46–7.81 | 9.424.89–13.95 |
| Total shots | 10.91 | 7.20–14.61 | 6.17–15.64 | 16.11 | 12.73–19.49 | 11.80–20.42 | 27.0217.98–36.06 |
| Shots in box | 6.76 | 4.24–9.27 | 3.38–10.14 | 11.07 | 8.77–13.37 | 7.97–14.17 | 17.8311.35–24.31 |
| Blocked shots | 2.74 | 1.16–4.32 | 0.62–4.86 | 4.17 | 2.76–5.59 | 2.27–6.07 | 6.912.89–10.93 |
| Corners | 4.17 | 1.96–6.37 | 1.37–6.97 | 6.13 | 4.16–8.11 | 3.62–8.65 | 10.304.98–15.62 |
| Possession % | 44.15 | 37.84–50.47 | 36.24–52.07 | 54.58 | 48.26–60.90 | 46.66–62.49 | — |
| Passes | 387 | 322–453 | 304–470 | 473 | 408–537 | 391–555 | 860695–1025 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.49 | 65.28–73.71 | 63.98–75.01 | 72.62 | 68.11–77.12 | 66.78–78.45 | — |
| Fouls | 13.28 | 10.42–16.14 | 9.54–17.02 | 13.52 | 10.58–16.47 | 9.66–17.39 | 26.8019.20–34.41 |
| Offsides | 1.78 | 0.57–2.99 | 0.23–3.34 | 1.84 | 0.68–3.01 | 0.35–3.34 | 3.630.58–6.67 |
| Yellow cards | 2.26 | 1.21–3.32 | 0.93–3.59 | 2.10 | 0.98–3.22 | 0.69–3.51 | 4.371.63–7.11 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.180.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 3.52 | 2.11–4.94 | 1.72–5.33 | 2.45 | 0.89–4.00 | 0.46–4.43 | 5.972.18–9.76 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
19%
22%
59%
Shots on target
22%
67%
Total shots
13%
82%
Shots in box
82%
Blocked shots
23%
13%
64%
Corners
22%
68%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+