Premiership· Regular Season - 29· · The SMISA Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 | 0.47–2.39 | 0.21–2.65 | 1.45 | 0.59–2.31 | 0.34–2.55 | 2.880.55–5.20 |
| Shots on target | 4.01 | 2.15–5.87 | 1.65–6.36 | 5.77 | 4.06–7.48 | 3.59–7.95 | 9.785.25–14.31 |
| Total shots | 12.04 | 8.34–15.74 | 7.31–16.77 | 15.20 | 11.82–18.58 | 10.89–19.51 | 27.2418.20–36.28 |
| Shots in box | 8.56 | 6.04–11.08 | 5.18–11.94 | 8.43 | 6.13–10.74 | 5.34–11.53 | 16.9910.52–23.47 |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 | 2.16–5.33 | 1.62–5.86 | 3.26 | 1.84–4.67 | 1.36–5.16 | 7.002.98–11.02 |
| Corners | 4.64 | 2.43–6.84 | 1.84–7.44 | 4.86 | 2.89–6.84 | 2.35–7.38 | 9.504.18–14.82 |
| Possession % | 50.55 | 44.23–56.86 | 42.63–58.46 | 50.76 | 44.44–57.08 | 42.84–58.68 | — |
| Passes | 427 | 362–492 | 344–510 | 414 | 349–479 | 332–496 | 841676–1006 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.82 | 64.61–73.04 | 63.31–74.34 | 70.70 | 66.19–75.21 | 64.86–76.54 | — |
| Fouls | 11.64 | 8.79–14.50 | 7.90–15.39 | 12.96 | 10.01–15.90 | 9.10–16.82 | 24.6017.00–32.21 |
| Offsides | 1.59 | 0.38–2.80 | 0.03–3.14 | 1.77 | 0.60–2.93 | 0.27–3.26 | 3.350.30–6.40 |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 | 0.48–2.60 | 0.21–2.87 | 1.74 | 0.61–2.86 | 0.32–3.15 | 3.270.54–6.01 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.22 | 1.81–4.63 | 1.42–5.02 | 2.76 | 1.20–4.31 | 0.77–4.74 | 5.982.19–9.77 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
37%
25%
38%
Shots on target
23%
66%
Total shots
24%
69%
Shots in box
46%
44%
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
Corners
41%
13%
46%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
49%
16%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+