Premiership· Regular Season - 30· · Ibrox Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.82 | 0.86–2.79 | 0.60–3.05 | 1.02 | 0.16–1.88 | 0.00–2.13 | 2.850.52–5.18 |
| Shots on target | 6.67 | 4.81–8.52 | 4.31–9.02 | 3.56 | 1.85–5.27 | 1.39–5.74 | 10.235.70–14.76 |
| Total shots | 19.10 | 15.39–22.80 | 14.36–23.83 | 10.01 | 6.63–13.38 | 5.70–14.31 | 29.1020.06–38.15 |
| Shots in box | 13.07 | 10.55–15.58 | 9.69–16.45 | 6.57 | 4.27–8.87 | 3.47–9.67 | 19.6413.16–26.12 |
| Blocked shots | 5.27 | 3.68–6.85 | 3.15–7.39 | 2.67 | 1.26–4.08 | 0.77–4.57 | 7.943.92–11.96 |
| Corners | 6.62 | 4.41–8.82 | 3.81–9.42 | 3.99 | 2.01–5.97 | 1.47–6.50 | 10.605.29–15.92 |
| Possession % | 52.46 | 46.15–58.78 | 44.55–60.38 | 47.10 | 40.78–53.42 | 39.19–55.02 | — |
| Passes | 468 | 402–533 | 385–551 | 457 | 392–521 | 375–539 | 925760–1090 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.94 | 73.73–82.16 | 72.43–83.46 | 81.27 | 76.77–85.78 | 75.44–87.11 | — |
| Fouls | 13.16 | 10.30–16.02 | 9.42–16.90 | 12.17 | 9.22–15.11 | 8.30–16.03 | 25.3317.72–32.93 |
| Offsides | 1.63 | 0.43–2.84 | 0.08–3.19 | 1.78 | 0.62–2.94 | 0.29–3.28 | 3.420.37–6.46 |
| Yellow cards | 1.27 | 0.21–2.32 | 0.00–2.59 | 2.07 | 0.95–3.19 | 0.66–3.48 | 3.340.60–6.08 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.30 | 0.88–3.71 | 0.49–4.10 | 3.71 | 2.16–5.27 | 1.73–5.70 | 6.012.22–9.80 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
23%
21%
Shots on target
79%
Total shots
95%
Shots in box
91%
Blocked shots
77%
13%
Corners
74%
17%
Fouls
54%
38%
Offsides
36%
23%
42%
Yellow cards
23%
21%
56%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
21%
14%
64%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+