Premiership· Regular Season - 31· · Tynecastle Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 | 0.36–2.29 | 0.10–2.55 | 1.44 | 0.58–2.30 | 0.34–2.55 | 2.770.44–5.09 |
| Shots on target | 4.45 | 2.60–6.31 | 2.10–6.81 | 5.04 | 3.33–6.74 | 2.86–7.21 | 9.494.96–14.02 |
| Total shots | 13.34 | 9.63–17.04 | 8.60–18.07 | 14.88 | 11.50–18.26 | 10.57–19.19 | 28.2119.17–37.26 |
| Shots in box | 8.73 | 6.21–11.24 | 5.35–12.11 | 9.64 | 7.34–11.94 | 6.54–12.73 | 18.3711.89–24.84 |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 | 1.93–5.10 | 1.39–5.63 | 3.80 | 2.38–5.21 | 1.90–5.70 | 7.313.29–11.33 |
| Corners | 5.01 | 2.80–7.21 | 2.21–7.81 | 5.10 | 3.12–7.08 | 2.59–7.62 | 10.114.79–15.42 |
| Possession % | 46.18 | 39.86–52.50 | 38.26–54.09 | 53.57 | 47.25–59.89 | 45.66–61.49 | — |
| Passes | 420 | 355–485 | 337–503 | 472 | 408–537 | 390–555 | 893728–1058 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.86 | 64.64–73.07 | 63.34–74.37 | 72.05 | 67.55–76.56 | 66.21–77.89 | — |
| Fouls | 11.67 | 8.82–14.53 | 7.93–15.42 | 13.29 | 10.34–16.23 | 9.42–17.15 | 24.9617.36–32.57 |
| Offsides | 1.83 | 0.62–3.04 | 0.28–3.39 | 1.60 | 0.43–2.76 | 0.10–3.09 | 3.430.38–6.48 |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 | 0.62–2.73 | 0.35–3.00 | 1.92 | 0.80–3.04 | 0.50–3.33 | 3.590.85–6.33 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.31 | 1.89–4.72 | 1.50–5.11 | 2.59 | 1.03–4.14 | 0.60–4.57 | 5.892.11–9.68 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
25%
40%
Shots on target
36%
51%
Total shots
35%
58%
Shots in box
37%
54%
Blocked shots
38%
15%
47%
Corners
42%
45%
Fouls
34%
59%
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
53%
16%
31%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+