Premier League· Regular Season - 7· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 | 0.17–2.10 | 0.00–2.36 | 1.71 | 0.86–2.57 | 0.61–2.82 | 2.850.52–5.18 |
| Shots on target | 3.87 | 2.01–5.72 | 1.51–6.22 | 5.37 | 3.66–7.08 | 3.19–7.55 | 9.244.71–13.77 |
| Total shots | 12.36 | 8.66–16.06 | 7.63–17.09 | 15.29 | 11.92–18.67 | 10.99–19.60 | 27.6618.61–36.70 |
| Shots in box | 7.18 | 4.66–9.70 | 3.80–10.56 | 10.01 | 7.71–12.31 | 6.91–13.11 | 17.1910.71–23.67 |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 | 2.05–5.22 | 1.52–5.76 | 4.46 | 3.05–5.88 | 2.56–6.36 | 8.104.08–12.12 |
| Corners | 4.72 | 2.51–6.92 | 1.92–7.52 | 5.64 | 3.66–7.62 | 3.12–8.15 | 10.355.04–15.67 |
| Possession % | 43.00 | 36.69–49.32 | 35.09–50.92 | 56.52 | 50.20–62.84 | 48.60–64.44 | — |
| Passes | 364 | 299–430 | 282–447 | 501 | 436–565 | 419–583 | 865700–1030 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.45 | 62.23–70.67 | 60.93–71.97 | 74.88 | 70.37–79.39 | 69.04–80.72 | — |
| Fouls | 10.90 | 8.05–13.76 | 7.16–14.65 | 10.65 | 7.70–13.59 | 6.79–14.51 | 21.5513.95–29.16 |
| Offsides | 2.03 | 0.82–3.24 | 0.48–3.58 | 1.87 | 0.71–3.03 | 0.37–3.36 | 3.900.85–6.95 |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 | 0.94–3.05 | 0.67–3.32 | 2.14 | 1.02–3.26 | 0.73–3.55 | 4.131.39–6.87 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.41 | 2.00–4.83 | 1.61–5.22 | 2.74 | 1.19–4.30 | 0.76–4.73 | 6.152.36–9.94 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
25%
24%
51%
Shots on target
25%
63%
Total shots
26%
68%
Shots in box
21%
71%
Blocked shots
32%
14%
54%
Corners
33%
55%
Fouls
48%
44%
Offsides
43%
21%
36%
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
52%
16%
32%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+