Premier League· Regular Season - 8· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 | 0.26–2.19 | 0.00–2.45 | 1.22 | 0.36–2.08 | 0.11–2.32 | 2.440.11–4.77 |
| Shots on target | 3.94 | 2.09–5.80 | 1.59–6.30 | 4.27 | 2.56–5.98 | 2.09–6.44 | 8.213.68–12.74 |
| Total shots | 12.17 | 8.46–15.87 | 7.43–16.90 | 12.71 | 9.33–16.08 | 8.40–17.02 | 24.8715.83–33.92 |
| Shots in box | 7.93 | 5.42–10.45 | 4.55–11.31 | 9.13 | 6.83–11.44 | 6.04–12.23 | 17.0710.59–23.55 |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 | 1.99–5.16 | 1.45–5.69 | 3.66 | 2.24–5.07 | 1.76–5.56 | 7.233.21–11.25 |
| Corners | 4.73 | 2.52–6.93 | 1.93–7.53 | 5.35 | 3.37–7.33 | 2.83–7.86 | 10.074.76–15.39 |
| Possession % | 41.99 | 35.67–48.31 | 34.08–49.91 | 58.43 | 52.11–64.75 | 50.51–66.35 | — |
| Passes | 315 | 250–380 | 232–398 | 469 | 405–534 | 387–551 | 784619–949 |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.68 | 60.47–68.90 | 59.17–70.20 | 72.33 | 67.82–76.84 | 66.49–78.17 | — |
| Fouls | 10.21 | 7.35–13.06 | 6.46–13.95 | 10.28 | 7.34–13.23 | 6.42–14.15 | 20.4912.89–28.10 |
| Offsides | 1.88 | 0.67–3.08 | 0.32–3.43 | 1.84 | 0.68–3.01 | 0.35–3.34 | 3.720.67–6.77 |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 | 0.96–3.07 | 0.69–3.34 | 1.96 | 0.84–3.08 | 0.55–3.37 | 3.971.24–6.71 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.87 | 1.46–4.29 | 1.07–4.67 | 2.58 | 1.03–4.14 | 0.60–4.57 | 5.461.67–9.24 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
36%
27%
36%
Shots on target
38%
14%
47%
Total shots
42%
50%
Shots in box
34%
57%
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
Corners
36%
51%
Fouls
45%
46%
Offsides
40%
22%
39%
Yellow cards
41%
21%
39%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+