Premier League· Regular Season - 9· · Stamford Bridge· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 | 0.43–2.36 | 0.17–2.62 | 1.56 | 0.70–2.42 | 0.46–2.67 | 2.960.63–5.29 |
| Shots on target | 4.82 | 2.97–6.68 | 2.47–7.18 | 5.02 | 3.31–6.73 | 2.84–7.20 | 9.845.31–14.37 |
| Total shots | 13.71 | 10.01–17.42 | 8.98–18.45 | 13.58 | 10.20–16.96 | 9.27–17.89 | 27.2918.25–36.33 |
| Shots in box | 8.28 | 5.77–10.80 | 4.90–11.66 | 9.41 | 7.11–11.71 | 6.31–12.51 | 17.6911.22–24.17 |
| Blocked shots | 3.71 | 2.12–5.29 | 1.59–5.83 | 3.83 | 2.41–5.24 | 1.93–5.73 | 7.543.52–11.56 |
| Corners | 5.90 | 3.70–8.11 | 3.10–8.70 | 5.05 | 3.07–7.03 | 2.53–7.56 | 10.955.63–16.27 |
| Possession % | 47.52 | 41.21–53.84 | 39.61–55.44 | 52.36 | 46.04–58.68 | 44.44–60.28 | — |
| Passes | 451 | 386–517 | 368–534 | 496 | 432–561 | 414–578 | 947782–1112 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.42 | 67.20–75.63 | 65.90–76.94 | 80.00 | 75.49–84.51 | 74.16–85.84 | — |
| Fouls | 10.58 | 7.72–13.44 | 6.84–14.32 | 10.81 | 7.86–13.75 | 6.94–14.67 | 21.3913.78–28.99 |
| Offsides | 1.55 | 0.34–2.76 | 0.00–3.10 | 1.75 | 0.58–2.91 | 0.25–3.24 | 3.290.25–6.34 |
| Yellow cards | 2.25 | 1.20–3.31 | 0.92–3.58 | 2.05 | 0.93–3.17 | 0.64–3.46 | 4.301.56–7.04 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.32 | 1.91–4.74 | 1.52–5.13 | 3.01 | 1.45–4.56 | 1.02–4.99 | 6.332.54–10.12 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
24%
42%
Shots on target
41%
46%
Total shots
47%
45%
Shots in box
35%
56%
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
Corners
54%
34%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
47%
16%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+