Premier League· Regular Season - 9· · St James' Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 | 0.19–2.11 | 0.00–2.37 | 1.30 | 0.44–2.16 | 0.20–2.41 | 2.450.12–4.78 |
| Shots on target | 4.06 | 2.20–5.92 | 1.70–6.41 | 4.49 | 2.78–6.20 | 2.31–6.67 | 8.554.02–13.08 |
| Total shots | 13.09 | 9.39–16.79 | 8.36–17.83 | 14.39 | 11.02–17.77 | 10.08–18.70 | 27.4918.44–36.53 |
| Shots in box | 8.92 | 6.40–11.43 | 5.53–12.30 | 8.54 | 6.24–10.85 | 5.45–11.64 | 17.4610.98–23.94 |
| Blocked shots | 4.42 | 2.84–6.01 | 2.30–6.54 | 3.76 | 2.35–5.18 | 1.86–5.66 | 8.184.16–12.20 |
| Corners | 5.15 | 2.95–7.36 | 2.35–7.95 | 4.79 | 2.82–6.77 | 2.28–7.31 | 9.954.63–15.26 |
| Possession % | 56.61 | 50.29–62.93 | 48.70–64.52 | 42.39 | 36.07–48.71 | 34.47–50.31 | — |
| Passes | 507 | 442–572 | 424–590 | 371 | 307–436 | 289–454 | 878713–1043 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.44 | 71.23–79.66 | 69.93–80.96 | 66.90 | 62.39–71.41 | 61.06–72.74 | — |
| Fouls | 10.63 | 7.77–13.49 | 6.89–14.37 | 11.86 | 8.92–14.81 | 8.00–15.72 | 22.4914.89–30.10 |
| Offsides | 1.34 | 0.13–2.55 | 0.00–2.90 | 1.37 | 0.21–2.54 | 0.00–2.87 | 2.710.00–5.76 |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 | 0.54–2.65 | 0.27–2.92 | 1.96 | 0.84–3.08 | 0.55–3.37 | 3.550.82–6.29 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.73 | 1.32–4.15 | 0.93–4.54 | 2.63 | 1.08–4.18 | 0.64–4.62 | 5.361.57–9.15 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
27%
40%
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
Total shots
37%
56%
Shots in box
49%
42%
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
Corners
48%
39%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
36%
26%
38%
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
43%
18%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+