Premier League· Regular Season - 11· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 | 0.09–2.02 | 0.00–2.28 | 1.55 | 0.69–2.41 | 0.45–2.66 | 2.610.28–4.94 |
| Shots on target | 3.54 | 1.68–5.39 | 1.18–5.89 | 5.22 | 3.51–6.93 | 3.04–7.39 | 8.764.23–13.29 |
| Total shots | 10.01 | 6.30–13.71 | 5.27–14.74 | 14.68 | 11.30–18.06 | 10.37–18.99 | 24.6915.65–33.73 |
| Shots in box | 7.03 | 4.51–9.54 | 3.65–10.41 | 9.70 | 7.40–12.00 | 6.60–12.80 | 16.7310.25–23.21 |
| Blocked shots | 2.93 | 1.34–4.51 | 0.81–5.05 | 4.08 | 2.67–5.50 | 2.18–5.99 | 7.012.99–11.03 |
| Corners | 3.59 | 1.39–5.80 | 0.79–6.39 | 5.36 | 3.38–7.34 | 2.84–7.87 | 8.953.64–14.27 |
| Possession % | 33.29 | 26.97–39.61 | 25.38–41.21 | 67.91 | 61.59–74.23 | 60.00–75.83 | — |
| Passes | 276 | 211–342 | 193–359 | 638 | 574–703 | 556–720 | 915750–1080 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.27 | 61.05–69.48 | 59.75–70.78 | 82.06 | 77.56–86.57 | 76.23–87.90 | — |
| Fouls | 10.79 | 7.93–13.64 | 7.04–14.53 | 9.29 | 6.35–12.24 | 5.43–13.16 | 20.0812.47–27.68 |
| Offsides | 2.05 | 0.84–3.26 | 0.49–3.60 | 2.03 | 0.87–3.19 | 0.54–3.53 | 4.081.03–7.13 |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 | 0.99–3.10 | 0.72–3.38 | 1.71 | 0.59–2.83 | 0.30–3.12 | 3.751.01–6.49 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.14 | 1.73–4.56 | 1.34–4.95 | 2.35 | 0.80–3.91 | 0.37–4.34 | 5.491.71–9.28 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
26%
25%
49%
Shots on target
23%
65%
Total shots
15%
80%
Shots in box
22%
70%
Blocked shots
26%
14%
60%
Corners
22%
66%
Fouls
59%
33%
Offsides
40%
20%
39%
Yellow cards
46%
21%
33%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
55%
17%
29%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+