Premier League· Regular Season - 12· · Old Trafford· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 | 1.08–3.01 | 0.82–3.27 | 1.08 | 0.22–1.94 | 0.00–2.19 | 3.130.80–5.45 |
| Shots on target | 6.44 | 4.59–8.30 | 4.09–8.80 | 3.54 | 1.83–5.25 | 1.36–5.71 | 9.985.45–14.51 |
| Total shots | 17.88 | 14.18–21.59 | 13.15–22.62 | 10.19 | 6.81–13.56 | 5.88–14.49 | 28.0719.02–37.11 |
| Shots in box | 11.51 | 8.99–14.03 | 8.13–14.89 | 6.97 | 4.67–9.27 | 3.87–10.07 | 18.4812.00–24.96 |
| Blocked shots | 5.63 | 4.05–7.22 | 3.51–7.75 | 2.73 | 1.32–4.15 | 0.83–4.63 | 8.364.34–12.38 |
| Corners | 6.72 | 4.52–8.93 | 3.92–9.52 | 4.16 | 2.18–6.14 | 1.64–6.68 | 10.885.57–16.20 |
| Possession % | 60.90 | 54.58–67.22 | 52.99–68.81 | 39.47 | 33.15–45.79 | 31.56–47.39 | — |
| Passes | 560 | 494–625 | 477–643 | 363 | 298–427 | 281–445 | 922757–1088 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.86 | 76.64–85.07 | 75.34–86.37 | 69.32 | 64.82–73.83 | 63.49–75.16 | — |
| Fouls | 8.62 | 5.76–11.47 | 4.88–12.36 | 12.00 | 9.05–14.94 | 8.14–15.86 | 20.6213.01–28.22 |
| Offsides | 1.79 | 0.58–3.00 | 0.23–3.34 | 1.32 | 0.16–2.49 | 0.00–2.82 | 3.110.06–6.16 |
| Yellow cards | 1.31 | 0.26–2.37 | 0.00–2.64 | 2.37 | 1.25–3.49 | 0.96–3.78 | 3.680.94–6.42 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.29 | 0.88–3.71 | 0.49–4.10 | 3.78 | 2.23–5.34 | 1.80–5.77 | 6.082.29–9.87 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
60%
21%
19%
Shots on target
78%
14%
Total shots
91%
Shots in box
83%
Blocked shots
80%
Corners
73%
17%
Fouls
20%
74%
Offsides
48%
23%
28%
Yellow cards
20%
19%
61%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+