Premier League· Regular Season - 13· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 | 0.48–2.40 | 0.22–2.66 | 1.30 | 0.44–2.16 | 0.20–2.41 | 2.740.41–5.07 |
| Shots on target | 4.71 | 2.85–6.56 | 2.35–7.06 | 4.09 | 2.38–5.80 | 1.91–6.26 | 8.804.27–13.33 |
| Total shots | 13.76 | 10.06–17.47 | 9.03–18.50 | 11.94 | 8.56–15.32 | 7.63–16.25 | 25.7016.66–34.74 |
| Shots in box | 10.19 | 7.68–12.71 | 6.81–13.57 | 8.16 | 5.85–10.46 | 5.06–11.25 | 18.3511.87–24.83 |
| Blocked shots | 4.71 | 3.13–6.30 | 2.59–6.83 | 3.28 | 1.86–4.69 | 1.38–5.18 | 7.993.97–12.01 |
| Corners | 5.45 | 3.24–7.65 | 2.65–8.25 | 4.75 | 2.77–6.72 | 2.23–7.26 | 10.194.88–15.51 |
| Possession % | 51.37 | 45.05–57.68 | 43.45–59.28 | 48.89 | 42.57–55.21 | 40.98–56.81 | — |
| Passes | 426 | 360–491 | 343–509 | 420 | 355–485 | 338–502 | 846681–1011 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.46 | 66.25–74.68 | 64.95–75.98 | 69.74 | 65.23–74.24 | 63.90–75.57 | — |
| Fouls | 11.58 | 8.72–14.44 | 7.84–15.32 | 10.82 | 7.87–13.76 | 6.95–14.68 | 22.4014.79–30.00 |
| Offsides | 1.73 | 0.52–2.94 | 0.17–3.28 | 2.21 | 1.04–3.37 | 0.71–3.70 | 3.930.89–6.98 |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 | 0.84–2.95 | 0.56–3.22 | 2.09 | 0.97–3.21 | 0.68–3.50 | 3.981.24–6.72 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.54 | 1.13–3.96 | 0.74–4.35 | 3.05 | 1.50–4.61 | 1.07–5.04 | 5.591.80–9.38 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
26%
34%
Shots on target
51%
13%
35%
Total shots
60%
32%
Shots in box
64%
28%
Blocked shots
63%
24%
Corners
52%
35%
Fouls
52%
39%
Offsides
31%
20%
49%
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+