Premier League· Regular Season - 14· · Old Trafford· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 | 0.97–2.89 | 0.71–3.15 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.18 | 3.000.67–5.33 |
| Shots on target | 6.19 | 4.34–8.05 | 3.84–8.55 | 3.05 | 1.34–4.75 | 0.87–5.22 | 9.244.71–13.77 |
| Total shots | 17.19 | 13.49–20.89 | 12.46–21.92 | 10.11 | 6.74–13.49 | 5.80–14.42 | 27.3018.26–36.35 |
| Shots in box | 12.04 | 9.52–14.56 | 8.66–15.42 | 7.13 | 4.83–9.44 | 4.04–10.23 | 19.1712.70–25.65 |
| Blocked shots | 5.63 | 4.05–7.21 | 3.51–7.75 | 2.71 | 1.29–4.12 | 0.81–4.61 | 8.344.32–12.36 |
| Corners | 6.06 | 3.86–8.27 | 3.26–8.86 | 4.10 | 2.13–6.08 | 1.59–6.62 | 10.174.85–15.48 |
| Possession % | 60.02 | 53.71–66.34 | 52.11–67.94 | 40.27 | 33.95–46.59 | 32.35–48.18 | — |
| Passes | 575 | 510–640 | 492–658 | 355 | 290–420 | 273–437 | 930765–1095 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.66 | 75.45–83.88 | 74.14–85.18 | 67.75 | 63.25–72.26 | 61.92–73.59 | — |
| Fouls | 9.02 | 6.16–11.88 | 5.28–12.76 | 11.41 | 8.46–14.35 | 7.54–15.27 | 20.4212.82–28.03 |
| Offsides | 2.09 | 0.88–3.30 | 0.54–3.65 | 1.34 | 0.18–2.50 | 0.00–2.83 | 3.430.38–6.48 |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 | 0.32–2.43 | 0.05–2.71 | 2.07 | 0.95–3.19 | 0.66–3.48 | 3.450.71–6.19 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.08 | 0.66–3.49 | 0.28–3.88 | 3.80 | 2.25–5.36 | 1.82–5.79 | 5.882.09–9.67 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
57%
22%
21%
Shots on target
81%
Total shots
90%
Shots in box
84%
Blocked shots
80%
Corners
68%
22%
Fouls
26%
66%
Offsides
55%
21%
24%
Yellow cards
25%
21%
53%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
17%
13%
69%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+