Premier League· Regular Season - 14· · St James' Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 | 0.20–2.12 | 0.00–2.38 | 1.30 | 0.44–2.16 | 0.20–2.41 | 2.460.14–4.79 |
| Shots on target | 3.42 | 1.56–5.28 | 1.06–5.77 | 4.43 | 2.73–6.14 | 2.26–6.61 | 7.853.32–12.38 |
| Total shots | 10.96 | 7.26–14.66 | 6.22–15.69 | 14.14 | 10.76–17.52 | 9.83–18.45 | 25.1016.05–34.14 |
| Shots in box | 7.94 | 5.43–10.46 | 4.56–11.32 | 8.50 | 6.20–10.80 | 5.40–11.60 | 16.449.96–22.92 |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 | 2.36–5.53 | 1.82–6.06 | 3.65 | 2.23–5.06 | 1.75–5.55 | 7.593.57–11.61 |
| Corners | 4.39 | 2.18–6.59 | 1.59–7.19 | 4.85 | 2.87–6.83 | 2.33–7.37 | 9.243.92–14.56 |
| Possession % | 53.49 | 47.18–59.81 | 45.58–61.41 | 46.37 | 40.05–52.69 | 38.45–54.29 | — |
| Passes | 472 | 407–537 | 389–555 | 377 | 312–441 | 295–459 | 849684–1014 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.46 | 68.25–76.68 | 66.95–77.98 | 69.40 | 64.90–73.91 | 63.57–75.24 | — |
| Fouls | 11.53 | 8.67–14.39 | 7.79–15.27 | 12.60 | 9.65–15.54 | 8.74–16.46 | 24.1316.52–31.73 |
| Offsides | 1.53 | 0.32–2.74 | 0.00–3.08 | 1.58 | 0.42–2.75 | 0.09–3.08 | 3.110.06–6.16 |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 | 0.74–2.85 | 0.46–3.12 | 2.26 | 1.14–3.38 | 0.85–3.67 | 4.051.31–6.79 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.54 | 1.13–3.96 | 0.74–4.35 | 2.33 | 0.78–3.89 | 0.35–4.32 | 4.871.08–8.66 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
27%
40%
Shots on target
29%
14%
57%
Total shots
23%
70%
Shots in box
40%
51%
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
Corners
37%
13%
49%
Fouls
37%
55%
Offsides
37%
24%
39%
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
44%
19%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+