Premier League· Regular Season - 15· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 | 0.43–2.35 | 0.17–2.61 | 1.14 | 0.29–2.00 | 0.04–2.25 | 2.540.21–4.86 |
| Shots on target | 4.81 | 2.95–6.66 | 2.45–7.16 | 4.01 | 2.30–5.72 | 1.83–6.19 | 8.824.28–13.35 |
| Total shots | 13.56 | 9.86–17.27 | 8.83–18.30 | 11.63 | 8.25–15.01 | 7.32–15.94 | 25.2016.15–34.24 |
| Shots in box | 10.32 | 7.81–12.84 | 6.94–13.70 | 7.57 | 5.27–9.87 | 4.47–10.67 | 17.8911.41–24.37 |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 | 2.30–5.47 | 1.77–6.00 | 3.33 | 1.92–4.75 | 1.43–5.23 | 7.223.20–11.24 |
| Corners | 5.05 | 2.84–7.25 | 2.25–7.85 | 4.64 | 2.66–6.62 | 2.12–7.15 | 9.684.37–15.00 |
| Possession % | 49.88 | 43.56–56.20 | 41.96–57.79 | 50.46 | 44.14–56.78 | 42.54–58.37 | — |
| Passes | 438 | 373–503 | 355–521 | 451 | 386–515 | 369–533 | 889724–1054 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.18 | 65.96–74.39 | 64.66–75.69 | 70.57 | 66.06–75.08 | 64.73–76.41 | — |
| Fouls | 11.79 | 8.93–14.65 | 8.05–15.53 | 10.92 | 7.98–13.87 | 7.06–14.78 | 22.7115.10–30.32 |
| Offsides | 2.64 | 1.43–3.85 | 1.08–4.19 | 2.20 | 1.04–3.36 | 0.71–3.70 | 4.841.79–7.89 |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 | 0.70–2.81 | 0.43–3.08 | 2.00 | 0.88–3.12 | 0.59–3.41 | 3.761.02–6.50 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.10 | 1.69–4.52 | 1.30–4.91 | 2.95 | 1.40–4.50 | 0.96–4.94 | 6.052.26–9.84 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
27%
31%
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
Total shots
61%
31%
Shots in box
70%
22%
Blocked shots
51%
15%
35%
Corners
49%
38%
Fouls
53%
39%
Offsides
48%
18%
33%
Yellow cards
34%
21%
44%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+