Premier League· Regular Season - 18· · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 | 0.36–2.29 | 0.10–2.55 | 1.88 | 1.02–2.74 | 0.77–2.98 | 3.200.87–5.53 |
| Shots on target | 4.73 | 2.88–6.59 | 2.38–7.09 | 5.09 | 3.39–6.80 | 2.92–7.27 | 9.835.30–14.36 |
| Total shots | 12.98 | 9.27–16.68 | 8.24–17.71 | 13.53 | 10.16–16.91 | 9.22–17.84 | 26.5117.47–35.55 |
| Shots in box | 8.91 | 6.39–11.42 | 5.53–12.29 | 10.47 | 8.17–12.78 | 7.38–13.57 | 19.3812.90–25.86 |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 | 1.94–5.10 | 1.40–5.64 | 3.73 | 2.32–5.15 | 1.83–5.63 | 7.253.23–11.27 |
| Corners | 4.72 | 2.51–6.92 | 1.92–7.52 | 5.14 | 3.16–7.11 | 2.62–7.65 | 9.854.54–15.17 |
| Possession % | 43.09 | 36.77–49.41 | 35.17–51.00 | 56.67 | 50.35–62.99 | 48.75–64.58 | — |
| Passes | 389 | 324–455 | 306–472 | 514 | 449–579 | 432–596 | 903738–1069 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.80 | 71.58–80.02 | 70.28–81.32 | 80.02 | 75.52–84.53 | 74.19–85.86 | — |
| Fouls | 11.79 | 8.93–14.65 | 8.05–15.53 | 11.82 | 8.87–14.77 | 7.96–15.68 | 23.6116.01–31.22 |
| Offsides | 1.96 | 0.75–3.16 | 0.40–3.51 | 1.58 | 0.42–2.74 | 0.09–3.08 | 3.540.49–6.59 |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 | 0.82–2.93 | 0.55–3.20 | 2.06 | 0.94–3.18 | 0.65–3.47 | 3.931.19–6.67 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.090.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.98 | 1.57–4.40 | 1.18–4.79 | 2.87 | 1.31–4.42 | 0.88–4.85 | 5.852.06–9.64 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
27%
23%
50%
Shots on target
39%
48%
Total shots
42%
50%
Shots in box
32%
60%
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
Corners
38%
49%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
47%
22%
32%
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+