Premier League· Regular Season - 19· · Emirates Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.11 | 1.15–3.07 | 0.89–3.33 | 0.70 | 0.00–1.55 | 0.00–1.80 | 2.810.48–5.13 |
| Shots on target | 6.86 | 5.00–8.71 | 4.50–9.21 | 2.67 | 0.96–4.38 | 0.50–4.85 | 9.535.00–14.06 |
| Total shots | 19.06 | 15.36–22.77 | 14.33–23.80 | 8.62 | 5.24–11.99 | 4.31–12.93 | 27.6818.64–36.72 |
| Shots in box | 13.60 | 11.09–16.12 | 10.22–16.98 | 4.85 | 2.55–7.15 | 1.75–7.95 | 18.4511.98–24.93 |
| Blocked shots | 5.67 | 4.08–7.25 | 3.55–7.78 | 2.33 | 0.91–3.74 | 0.43–4.23 | 7.993.98–12.01 |
| Corners | 7.26 | 5.05–9.46 | 4.45–10.06 | 2.83 | 0.85–4.81 | 0.31–5.34 | 10.084.77–15.40 |
| Possession % | 62.04 | 55.72–68.36 | 54.13–69.96 | 37.72 | 31.40–44.04 | 29.80–45.63 | — |
| Passes | 593 | 528–658 | 510–676 | 350 | 285–414 | 268–432 | 943778–1108 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.25 | 78.03–86.46 | 76.73–87.76 | 71.26 | 66.76–75.77 | 65.43–77.10 | — |
| Fouls | 9.69 | 6.84–12.55 | 5.95–13.43 | 11.52 | 8.57–14.47 | 7.66–15.38 | 21.2113.61–28.82 |
| Offsides | 1.92 | 0.72–3.13 | 0.37–3.48 | 1.16 | 0.00–2.33 | 0.00–2.66 | 3.090.04–6.14 |
| Yellow cards | 1.13 | 0.08–2.19 | 0.00–2.46 | 2.18 | 1.06–3.30 | 0.77–3.59 | 3.310.57–6.05 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 1.96 | 0.55–3.38 | 0.16–3.77 | 3.97 | 2.41–5.52 | 1.98–5.95 | 5.932.14–9.72 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
70%
19%
Shots on target
89%
Total shots
97%
Shots in box
98%
Blocked shots
85%
Corners
90%
Fouls
31%
61%
Offsides
55%
22%
23%
Yellow cards
19%
20%
61%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
15%
73%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+