Premier League· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 | 0.42–2.34 | 0.16–2.60 | 1.26 | 0.40–2.12 | 0.15–2.37 | 2.640.31–4.97 |
| Shots on target | 4.78 | 2.93–6.64 | 2.43–7.14 | 3.93 | 2.22–5.64 | 1.76–6.11 | 8.714.18–13.24 |
| Total shots | 14.05 | 10.35–17.75 | 9.31–18.78 | 11.13 | 7.75–14.51 | 6.82–15.44 | 25.1816.13–34.22 |
| Shots in box | 9.06 | 6.55–11.58 | 5.68–12.44 | 7.54 | 5.24–9.85 | 4.45–10.64 | 16.6110.13–23.09 |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 | 1.97–5.14 | 1.44–5.67 | 3.09 | 1.68–4.51 | 1.19–4.99 | 6.642.63–10.66 |
| Corners | 5.12 | 2.91–7.32 | 2.32–7.92 | 4.32 | 2.34–6.30 | 1.81–6.84 | 9.444.12–14.76 |
| Possession % | 48.06 | 41.74–54.38 | 40.15–55.97 | 51.30 | 44.98–57.62 | 43.38–59.22 | — |
| Passes | 435 | 370–501 | 352–518 | 432 | 368–497 | 350–514 | 867702–1033 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.85 | 65.64–74.07 | 64.33–75.37 | 70.96 | 66.45–75.47 | 65.12–76.80 | — |
| Fouls | 11.81 | 8.95–14.67 | 8.07–15.55 | 11.41 | 8.47–14.36 | 7.55–15.27 | 23.2215.62–30.83 |
| Offsides | 2.78 | 1.57–3.99 | 1.23–4.34 | 1.67 | 0.50–2.83 | 0.17–3.16 | 4.451.40–7.50 |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 | 1.02–3.13 | 0.75–3.40 | 1.96 | 0.84–3.08 | 0.55–3.37 | 4.031.30–6.77 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.65 | 1.24–4.07 | 0.85–4.46 | 3.15 | 1.60–4.71 | 1.17–5.14 | 5.812.02–9.60 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
26%
34%
Shots on target
55%
13%
32%
Total shots
69%
25%
Shots in box
60%
31%
Blocked shots
49%
16%
35%
Corners
54%
34%
Fouls
49%
43%
Offsides
61%
17%
22%
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
34%
17%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+