Premier League· Regular Season - 20· · Emirates Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.17 | 1.20–3.13 | 0.94–3.39 | 0.72 | 0.00–1.58 | 0.00–1.83 | 2.890.56–5.22 |
| Shots on target | 6.64 | 4.78–8.50 | 4.29–9.00 | 2.95 | 1.24–4.65 | 0.77–5.12 | 9.595.06–14.12 |
| Total shots | 18.07 | 14.37–21.78 | 13.34–22.81 | 8.85 | 5.48–12.23 | 4.55–13.16 | 26.9317.88–35.97 |
| Shots in box | 12.41 | 9.89–14.93 | 9.03–15.79 | 5.38 | 3.08–7.68 | 2.28–8.48 | 17.7911.31–24.26 |
| Blocked shots | 5.21 | 3.62–6.79 | 3.09–7.32 | 2.39 | 0.98–3.81 | 0.49–4.29 | 7.603.58–11.62 |
| Corners | 7.02 | 4.82–9.23 | 4.22–9.82 | 3.26 | 1.28–5.24 | 0.74–5.77 | 10.284.96–15.60 |
| Possession % | 60.88 | 54.56–67.20 | 52.96–68.79 | 39.94 | 33.62–46.26 | 32.02–47.86 | — |
| Passes | 562 | 497–628 | 479–645 | 347 | 283–412 | 265–429 | 909744–1075 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.72 | 78.50–86.93 | 77.20–88.24 | 70.14 | 65.63–74.65 | 64.30–75.98 | — |
| Fouls | 9.41 | 6.55–12.26 | 5.67–13.15 | 12.37 | 9.43–15.32 | 8.51–16.24 | 21.7814.18–29.39 |
| Offsides | 1.94 | 0.73–3.15 | 0.39–3.50 | 1.14 | 0.00–2.30 | 0.00–2.63 | 3.080.03–6.13 |
| Yellow cards | 1.33 | 0.27–2.38 | 0.00–2.66 | 2.26 | 1.14–3.38 | 0.85–3.67 | 3.580.85–6.32 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.16 | 0.75–3.58 | 0.36–3.97 | 3.59 | 2.04–5.15 | 1.61–5.58 | 5.761.97–9.55 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
71%
18%
Shots on target
85%
Total shots
96%
Shots in box
94%
Blocked shots
80%
Corners
85%
Fouls
23%
70%
Offsides
56%
22%
22%
Yellow cards
22%
20%
58%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+