Premier League· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 | 0.21–2.14 | 0.00–2.40 | 1.22 | 0.36–2.08 | 0.11–2.33 | 2.390.06–4.72 |
| Shots on target | 4.58 | 2.73–6.44 | 2.23–6.94 | 4.24 | 2.53–5.95 | 2.06–6.41 | 8.824.29–13.35 |
| Total shots | 13.50 | 9.80–17.21 | 8.77–18.24 | 12.98 | 9.60–16.36 | 8.67–17.29 | 26.4817.44–35.52 |
| Shots in box | 9.06 | 6.55–11.58 | 5.68–12.44 | 8.13 | 5.83–10.43 | 5.03–11.23 | 17.1910.71–23.67 |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 | 1.72–4.89 | 1.18–5.42 | 3.88 | 2.46–5.29 | 1.98–5.78 | 7.183.16–11.20 |
| Corners | 5.06 | 2.85–7.26 | 2.26–7.86 | 4.95 | 2.97–6.92 | 2.43–7.46 | 10.004.69–15.32 |
| Possession % | 43.98 | 37.66–50.29 | 36.06–51.89 | 56.12 | 49.80–62.44 | 48.20–64.03 | — |
| Passes | 374 | 309–439 | 291–457 | 492 | 427–556 | 409–574 | 866700–1031 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.10 | 61.88–70.31 | 60.58–71.62 | 73.29 | 68.79–77.80 | 67.46–79.13 | — |
| Fouls | 11.29 | 8.43–14.15 | 7.55–15.03 | 10.73 | 7.79–13.68 | 6.87–14.60 | 22.0214.42–29.63 |
| Offsides | 2.70 | 1.49–3.91 | 1.15–4.26 | 1.08 | 0.00–2.25 | 0.00–2.58 | 3.790.74–6.84 |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 | 0.66–2.77 | 0.39–3.04 | 1.79 | 0.67–2.91 | 0.38–3.20 | 3.500.77–6.24 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.20 | 1.79–4.62 | 1.40–5.01 | 2.79 | 1.24–4.34 | 0.80–4.77 | 5.992.20–9.78 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
28%
37%
Shots on target
48%
14%
39%
Total shots
50%
42%
Shots in box
54%
36%
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
Corners
45%
42%
Fouls
50%
41%
Offsides
72%
16%
Yellow cards
37%
22%
40%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
48%
16%
35%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+