Premier League· Regular Season - 21· · Anfield· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 | 0.85–2.77 | 0.59–3.03 | 0.94 | 0.08–1.80 | 0.00–2.04 | 2.750.42–5.07 |
| Shots on target | 5.92 | 4.06–7.78 | 3.56–8.27 | 3.03 | 1.32–4.73 | 0.85–5.20 | 8.954.41–13.48 |
| Total shots | 16.88 | 13.18–20.58 | 12.14–21.61 | 9.13 | 5.75–12.50 | 4.82–13.43 | 26.0016.96–35.05 |
| Shots in box | 11.44 | 8.92–13.95 | 8.06–14.82 | 6.46 | 4.15–8.76 | 3.36–9.55 | 17.8911.42–24.37 |
| Blocked shots | 5.27 | 3.69–6.86 | 3.15–7.39 | 2.89 | 1.48–4.31 | 0.99–4.79 | 8.164.14–12.18 |
| Corners | 6.56 | 4.36–8.77 | 3.76–9.36 | 4.10 | 2.12–6.08 | 1.59–6.62 | 10.665.35–15.98 |
| Possession % | 57.66 | 51.34–63.98 | 49.74–65.57 | 41.86 | 35.54–48.17 | 33.94–49.77 | — |
| Passes | 514 | 448–579 | 431–597 | 382 | 317–446 | 299–464 | 895730–1060 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.56 | 75.34–83.77 | 74.04–85.08 | 68.04 | 63.53–72.55 | 62.20–73.88 | — |
| Fouls | 10.76 | 7.90–13.62 | 7.02–14.50 | 10.48 | 7.53–13.42 | 6.61–14.34 | 21.2413.63–28.84 |
| Offsides | 1.45 | 0.25–2.66 | 0.00–3.01 | 2.11 | 0.95–3.27 | 0.61–3.60 | 3.560.52–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 | 0.61–2.72 | 0.34–3.00 | 1.84 | 0.72–2.96 | 0.43–3.25 | 3.510.77–6.24 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.04 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.080.00–0.72 |
| GK saves | 2.12 | 0.71–3.54 | 0.32–3.93 | 3.42 | 1.87–4.97 | 1.43–5.41 | 5.541.75–9.33 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
58%
23%
19%
Shots on target
79%
Total shots
92%
Shots in box
86%
Blocked shots
75%
15%
Corners
73%
18%
Fouls
48%
43%
Offsides
26%
21%
53%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
42%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
22%
15%
63%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+