Premier League· Regular Season - 23· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 | 0.40–2.33 | 0.14–2.59 | 1.27 | 0.41–2.13 | 0.16–2.38 | 2.640.31–4.96 |
| Shots on target | 4.46 | 2.60–6.31 | 2.10–6.81 | 3.84 | 2.13–5.55 | 1.66–6.01 | 8.303.77–12.83 |
| Total shots | 13.49 | 9.79–17.20 | 8.76–18.23 | 11.61 | 8.23–14.99 | 7.30–15.92 | 25.1016.06–34.14 |
| Shots in box | 9.10 | 6.59–11.62 | 5.72–12.48 | 8.07 | 5.77–10.38 | 4.98–11.17 | 17.1810.70–23.66 |
| Blocked shots | 4.40 | 2.82–5.98 | 2.28–6.52 | 3.38 | 1.97–4.80 | 1.48–5.28 | 7.783.77–11.80 |
| Corners | 5.37 | 3.17–7.58 | 2.57–8.17 | 4.77 | 2.79–6.75 | 2.26–7.29 | 10.154.83–15.46 |
| Possession % | 52.33 | 46.02–58.65 | 44.42–60.25 | 47.57 | 41.25–53.89 | 39.65–55.49 | — |
| Passes | 432 | 366–497 | 349–515 | 417 | 353–482 | 335–499 | 849684–1014 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.80 | 63.59–72.02 | 62.28–73.32 | 68.44 | 63.93–72.94 | 62.60–74.27 | — |
| Fouls | 11.72 | 8.86–14.57 | 7.97–15.46 | 11.49 | 8.55–14.44 | 7.63–15.35 | 23.2115.60–30.81 |
| Offsides | 1.69 | 0.48–2.90 | 0.14–3.24 | 2.22 | 1.06–3.38 | 0.72–3.71 | 3.910.86–6.96 |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 | 0.76–2.87 | 0.49–3.14 | 1.79 | 0.67–2.91 | 0.38–3.20 | 3.610.87–6.34 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.62 | 1.20–4.03 | 0.81–4.42 | 2.85 | 1.30–4.41 | 0.87–4.84 | 5.471.68–9.26 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
26%
35%
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
Total shots
61%
32%
Shots in box
55%
36%
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
Corners
51%
36%
Fouls
48%
44%
Offsides
30%
20%
50%
Yellow cards
40%
22%
38%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
37%
17%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+