Premier League· Regular Season - 23· · Etihad Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 | 0.79–2.72 | 0.53–2.98 | 1.06 | 0.20–1.92 | 0.00–2.17 | 2.820.49–5.15 |
| Shots on target | 5.29 | 3.43–7.14 | 2.93–7.64 | 3.57 | 1.86–5.28 | 1.39–5.75 | 8.864.33–13.39 |
| Total shots | 14.46 | 10.76–18.17 | 9.73–19.20 | 10.48 | 7.11–13.86 | 6.17–14.79 | 24.9515.90–33.99 |
| Shots in box | 9.97 | 7.46–12.49 | 6.59–13.35 | 6.95 | 4.65–9.25 | 3.85–10.05 | 16.9210.44–23.40 |
| Blocked shots | 4.37 | 2.79–5.95 | 2.25–6.49 | 2.83 | 1.41–4.24 | 0.92–4.73 | 7.193.18–11.21 |
| Corners | 5.91 | 3.70–8.11 | 3.11–8.71 | 3.91 | 1.93–5.88 | 1.39–6.42 | 9.824.50–15.13 |
| Possession % | 61.20 | 54.88–67.52 | 53.28–69.11 | 39.79 | 33.47–46.11 | 31.87–47.71 | — |
| Passes | 601 | 535–666 | 518–684 | 397 | 333–462 | 315–480 | 998833–1163 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.92 | 77.70–86.13 | 76.40–87.43 | 79.75 | 75.25–84.26 | 73.92–85.59 | — |
| Fouls | 11.11 | 8.25–13.96 | 7.37–14.85 | 12.05 | 9.10–14.99 | 8.18–15.91 | 23.1515.55–30.76 |
| Offsides | 1.56 | 0.35–2.77 | 0.00–3.11 | 2.69 | 1.53–3.85 | 1.20–4.19 | 4.251.20–7.30 |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 | 0.65–2.76 | 0.37–3.03 | 1.93 | 0.81–3.05 | 0.52–3.34 | 3.630.89–6.37 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.40 | 0.98–3.81 | 0.59–4.20 | 3.39 | 1.84–4.95 | 1.41–5.38 | 5.792.00–9.58 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
24%
23%
Shots on target
66%
23%
Total shots
76%
18%
Shots in box
73%
19%
Blocked shots
65%
22%
Corners
68%
21%
Fouls
38%
54%
Offsides
21%
18%
62%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
44%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+