Premier League· Regular Season - 23· · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 | 0.55–2.48 | 0.29–2.74 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.18 | 2.580.26–4.91 |
| Shots on target | 4.93 | 3.07–6.79 | 2.57–7.29 | 3.43 | 1.72–5.13 | 1.25–5.60 | 8.363.83–12.89 |
| Total shots | 14.56 | 10.86–18.26 | 9.82–19.29 | 10.73 | 7.36–14.11 | 6.43–15.04 | 25.2916.25–34.34 |
| Shots in box | 10.03 | 7.51–12.54 | 6.65–13.41 | 7.53 | 5.22–9.83 | 4.43–10.62 | 17.5511.07–24.03 |
| Blocked shots | 4.44 | 2.86–6.03 | 2.33–6.56 | 2.95 | 1.53–4.36 | 1.05–4.85 | 7.393.37–11.41 |
| Corners | 5.60 | 3.40–7.81 | 2.80–8.40 | 4.17 | 2.19–6.14 | 1.65–6.68 | 9.774.45–15.09 |
| Possession % | 60.81 | 54.49–67.13 | 52.89–68.72 | 40.41 | 34.09–46.73 | 32.50–48.33 | — |
| Passes | 490 | 424–555 | 407–573 | 348 | 284–413 | 266–430 | 838673–1003 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.24 | 76.03–84.46 | 74.73–85.76 | 67.84 | 63.33–72.35 | 62.00–73.68 | — |
| Fouls | 11.64 | 8.78–14.49 | 7.89–15.38 | 12.86 | 9.92–15.81 | 9.00–16.73 | 24.5016.89–32.10 |
| Offsides | 1.35 | 0.14–2.55 | 0.00–2.90 | 1.70 | 0.54–2.86 | 0.21–3.20 | 3.050.00–6.09 |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 | 0.77–2.88 | 0.50–3.15 | 2.42 | 1.30–3.54 | 1.01–3.83 | 4.251.51–6.98 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.16 | 0.74–3.57 | 0.35–3.96 | 2.88 | 1.33–4.44 | 0.90–4.87 | 5.041.25–8.83 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
48%
26%
27%
Shots on target
63%
24%
Total shots
75%
19%
Shots in box
68%
24%
Blocked shots
64%
23%
Corners
62%
27%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
30%
24%
46%
Yellow cards
29%
19%
51%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+