Premier League· Regular Season - 28· · Anfield· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.02 | 1.06–2.98 | 0.80–3.24 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.18 | 3.090.76–5.42 |
| Shots on target | 6.28 | 4.43–8.14 | 3.93–8.64 | 3.63 | 1.92–5.33 | 1.45–5.80 | 9.915.38–14.44 |
| Total shots | 17.25 | 13.55–20.96 | 12.52–21.99 | 10.38 | 7.01–13.76 | 6.07–14.69 | 27.6418.59–36.68 |
| Shots in box | 11.49 | 8.97–14.00 | 8.11–14.87 | 6.48 | 4.18–8.79 | 3.39–9.58 | 17.9711.49–24.45 |
| Blocked shots | 4.75 | 3.17–6.34 | 2.64–6.87 | 2.91 | 1.49–4.32 | 1.01–4.81 | 7.663.64–11.68 |
| Corners | 6.01 | 3.80–8.21 | 3.21–8.81 | 4.12 | 2.14–6.10 | 1.60–6.63 | 10.134.81–15.44 |
| Possession % | 54.75 | 48.43–61.07 | 46.84–62.67 | 44.88 | 38.57–51.20 | 36.97–52.80 | — |
| Passes | 489 | 423–554 | 406–572 | 415 | 350–479 | 332–497 | 903738–1068 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.89 | 77.67–86.10 | 76.37–87.40 | 70.74 | 66.23–75.25 | 64.90–76.58 | — |
| Fouls | 11.36 | 8.50–14.21 | 7.61–15.10 | 10.26 | 7.31–13.20 | 6.39–14.12 | 21.6114.01–29.22 |
| Offsides | 2.76 | 1.55–3.97 | 1.21–4.32 | 1.75 | 0.59–2.91 | 0.25–3.24 | 4.511.46–7.56 |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 | 0.67–2.78 | 0.40–3.06 | 1.84 | 0.72–2.96 | 0.43–3.25 | 3.570.83–6.30 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.70 | 1.29–4.12 | 0.90–4.51 | 3.76 | 2.21–5.31 | 1.77–5.75 | 6.462.68–10.25 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
59%
21%
20%
Shots on target
75%
15%
Total shots
89%
Shots in box
86%
Blocked shots
69%
19%
Corners
67%
22%
Fouls
55%
37%
Offsides
59%
18%
23%
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+