Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 | 1.02–2.95 | 0.76–3.21 | 1.00 | 0.15–1.86 | 0.00–2.11 | 2.990.66–5.32 |
| Shots on target | 6.62 | 4.76–8.48 | 4.26–8.98 | 3.26 | 1.55–4.97 | 1.09–5.44 | 9.885.35–14.41 |
| Total shots | 18.68 | 14.98–22.38 | 13.95–23.41 | 9.95 | 6.57–13.33 | 5.64–14.26 | 28.6319.58–37.67 |
| Shots in box | 12.44 | 9.92–14.95 | 9.06–15.82 | 6.41 | 4.11–8.71 | 3.31–9.51 | 18.8512.37–25.33 |
| Blocked shots | 5.49 | 3.91–7.08 | 3.37–7.61 | 2.97 | 1.55–4.38 | 1.07–4.87 | 8.464.44–12.48 |
| Corners | 6.91 | 4.71–9.12 | 4.11–9.71 | 3.60 | 1.63–5.58 | 1.09–6.12 | 10.525.20–15.83 |
| Possession % | 59.10 | 52.78–65.42 | 51.19–67.01 | 41.02 | 34.70–47.34 | 33.10–48.93 | — |
| Passes | 528 | 462–593 | 445–611 | 367 | 303–432 | 285–450 | 895730–1060 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.07 | 76.85–85.28 | 75.55–86.58 | 69.76 | 65.25–74.26 | 63.92–75.59 | — |
| Fouls | 10.84 | 7.98–13.69 | 7.10–14.58 | 9.87 | 6.93–12.82 | 6.01–13.74 | 20.7113.11–28.32 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.21–3.31 | 1.79 | 0.62–2.95 | 0.29–3.28 | 3.540.50–6.59 |
| Yellow cards | 1.41 | 0.35–2.47 | 0.08–2.74 | 1.91 | 0.79–3.03 | 0.50–3.32 | 3.320.58–6.06 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.26 | 0.84–3.67 | 0.45–4.06 | 3.92 | 2.37–5.48 | 1.94–5.91 | 6.182.39–9.97 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
60%
21%
19%
Shots on target
82%
Total shots
94%
Shots in box
90%
Blocked shots
76%
14%
Corners
81%
Fouls
54%
37%
Offsides
38%
22%
39%
Yellow cards
28%
22%
49%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
19%
13%
68%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+