Premier League· Regular Season - 34· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 | 0.16–2.09 | 0.00–2.35 | 1.36 | 0.50–2.22 | 0.25–2.46 | 2.480.15–4.81 |
| Shots on target | 3.94 | 2.09–5.80 | 1.59–6.30 | 4.38 | 2.67–6.09 | 2.20–6.55 | 8.323.79–12.85 |
| Total shots | 12.07 | 8.37–15.77 | 7.34–16.80 | 13.86 | 10.48–17.24 | 9.55–18.17 | 25.9316.88–34.97 |
| Shots in box | 7.30 | 4.78–9.82 | 3.92–10.68 | 8.52 | 6.22–10.83 | 5.43–11.62 | 15.839.35–22.30 |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 | 1.38–4.55 | 0.85–5.08 | 3.88 | 2.47–5.29 | 1.98–5.78 | 6.852.83–10.86 |
| Corners | 4.21 | 2.00–6.41 | 1.41–7.01 | 5.41 | 3.43–7.39 | 2.89–7.93 | 9.624.30–14.93 |
| Possession % | 39.92 | 33.60–46.23 | 32.00–47.83 | 59.03 | 52.71–65.35 | 51.12–66.95 | — |
| Passes | 342 | 277–408 | 259–425 | 486 | 422–551 | 404–569 | 829664–994 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.40 | 62.18–70.62 | 60.88–71.92 | 73.76 | 69.25–78.27 | 67.92–79.60 | — |
| Fouls | 11.12 | 8.26–13.97 | 7.38–14.86 | 10.75 | 7.80–13.69 | 6.88–14.61 | 21.8614.26–29.47 |
| Offsides | 1.73 | 0.52–2.94 | 0.18–3.28 | 1.79 | 0.63–2.96 | 0.30–3.29 | 3.520.47–6.57 |
| Yellow cards | 2.27 | 1.21–3.32 | 0.94–3.59 | 1.71 | 0.59–2.83 | 0.30–3.12 | 3.981.24–6.72 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.70 | 1.29–4.11 | 0.90–4.50 | 2.72 | 1.16–4.27 | 0.73–4.70 | 5.421.63–9.21 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
27%
42%
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
Total shots
33%
60%
Shots in box
33%
57%
Blocked shots
29%
15%
56%
Corners
29%
59%
Fouls
49%
43%
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
Yellow cards
51%
20%
29%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
41%
18%
42%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+