Premier League· Regular Season - 35· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 | 0.30–2.22 | 0.04–2.48 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.17 | 2.330.00–4.66 |
| Shots on target | 5.18 | 3.33–7.04 | 2.83–7.54 | 3.18 | 1.48–4.89 | 1.01–5.36 | 8.373.83–12.90 |
| Total shots | 15.66 | 11.96–19.36 | 10.93–20.39 | 10.79 | 7.41–14.16 | 6.48–15.09 | 26.4517.40–35.49 |
| Shots in box | 9.78 | 7.27–12.30 | 6.40–13.16 | 6.60 | 4.30–8.90 | 3.50–9.70 | 16.389.90–22.86 |
| Blocked shots | 4.25 | 2.67–5.84 | 2.13–6.37 | 3.29 | 1.87–4.70 | 1.39–5.19 | 7.543.52–11.56 |
| Corners | 6.16 | 3.96–8.37 | 3.36–8.96 | 4.14 | 2.16–6.12 | 1.63–6.66 | 10.304.99–15.62 |
| Possession % | 56.88 | 50.56–63.19 | 48.96–64.79 | 42.02 | 35.70–48.34 | 34.11–49.94 | — |
| Passes | 468 | 403–533 | 385–551 | 339 | 274–403 | 256–421 | 807642–972 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.18 | 66.97–75.40 | 65.67–76.70 | 66.25 | 61.75–70.76 | 60.42–72.09 | — |
| Fouls | 8.19 | 5.33–11.05 | 4.45–11.93 | 10.96 | 8.02–13.91 | 7.10–14.82 | 19.1511.55–26.76 |
| Offsides | 1.72 | 0.51–2.92 | 0.16–3.27 | 1.21 | 0.05–2.37 | 0.00–2.70 | 2.920.00–5.97 |
| Yellow cards | 1.17 | 0.12–2.23 | 0.00–2.50 | 1.89 | 0.77–3.01 | 0.48–3.30 | 3.060.33–5.80 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.080.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.29 | 0.87–3.70 | 0.48–4.09 | 3.01 | 1.46–4.56 | 1.02–4.99 | 5.301.51–9.08 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
41%
28%
31%
Shots on target
70%
19%
Total shots
80%
15%
Shots in box
75%
18%
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
Corners
68%
21%
Fouls
23%
70%
Offsides
49%
24%
27%
Yellow cards
23%
22%
54%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+