Premier League· Regular Season - 36· · Villa Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 | 0.66–2.59 | 0.40–2.85 | 1.13 | 0.27–1.99 | 0.02–2.23 | 2.750.43–5.08 |
| Shots on target | 5.87 | 4.01–7.72 | 3.51–8.22 | 3.81 | 2.11–5.52 | 1.64–5.99 | 9.685.15–14.21 |
| Total shots | 17.20 | 13.50–20.90 | 12.47–21.93 | 10.61 | 7.23–13.99 | 6.30–14.92 | 27.8118.77–36.85 |
| Shots in box | 10.74 | 8.23–13.26 | 7.36–14.12 | 7.91 | 5.61–10.21 | 4.81–11.01 | 18.6612.18–25.13 |
| Blocked shots | 4.74 | 3.16–6.32 | 2.62–6.86 | 3.05 | 1.64–4.46 | 1.15–4.95 | 7.793.77–11.81 |
| Corners | 6.04 | 3.84–8.25 | 3.24–8.84 | 3.98 | 2.00–5.96 | 1.46–6.49 | 10.024.71–15.34 |
| Possession % | 52.70 | 46.38–59.02 | 44.78–60.61 | 47.47 | 41.15–53.79 | 39.55–55.38 | — |
| Passes | 466 | 401–531 | 383–549 | 409 | 345–474 | 327–492 | 875710–1041 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.86 | 72.64–81.07 | 71.34–82.38 | 72.55 | 68.04–77.06 | 66.71–78.39 | — |
| Fouls | 12.15 | 9.29–15.01 | 8.41–15.89 | 11.78 | 8.84–14.73 | 7.92–15.65 | 23.9316.33–31.54 |
| Offsides | 1.40 | 0.19–2.61 | 0.00–2.95 | 2.30 | 1.14–3.47 | 0.81–3.80 | 3.700.65–6.75 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.55–2.67 | 0.28–2.94 | 2.08 | 0.96–3.20 | 0.67–3.49 | 3.690.95–6.43 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.18 | 0.76–3.59 | 0.38–3.98 | 3.53 | 1.98–5.09 | 1.55–5.52 | 5.711.92–9.50 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
49%
25%
26%
Shots on target
69%
20%
Total shots
88%
Shots in box
71%
22%
Blocked shots
66%
21%
Corners
69%
21%
Fouls
49%
43%
Offsides
23%
20%
58%
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
21%
15%
64%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+