Premier League· Regular Season - 36· · Stamford Bridge· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 | 0.57–2.49 | 0.31–2.75 | 1.05 | 0.19–1.91 | 0.00–2.15 | 2.580.25–4.91 |
| Shots on target | 5.78 | 3.92–7.63 | 3.42–8.13 | 3.53 | 1.83–5.24 | 1.36–5.71 | 9.314.78–13.84 |
| Total shots | 17.44 | 13.74–21.14 | 12.71–22.18 | 11.21 | 7.83–14.59 | 6.90–15.52 | 28.6519.61–37.69 |
| Shots in box | 11.50 | 8.98–14.01 | 8.12–14.88 | 8.13 | 5.83–10.43 | 5.03–11.23 | 19.6313.15–26.10 |
| Blocked shots | 4.96 | 3.37–6.54 | 2.84–7.07 | 3.00 | 1.58–4.41 | 1.10–4.90 | 7.953.94–11.97 |
| Corners | 6.39 | 4.18–8.60 | 3.59–9.19 | 4.29 | 2.32–6.27 | 1.78–6.81 | 10.685.37–16.00 |
| Possession % | 61.08 | 54.77–67.40 | 53.17–69.00 | 37.35 | 31.03–43.67 | 29.44–45.27 | — |
| Passes | 559 | 493–624 | 476–642 | 353 | 288–417 | 270–435 | 911746–1076 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.66 | 71.45–79.88 | 70.15–81.18 | 67.16 | 62.66–71.67 | 61.33–73.00 | — |
| Fouls | 9.40 | 6.54–12.25 | 5.65–13.14 | 11.55 | 8.61–14.50 | 7.69–15.41 | 20.9513.34–28.55 |
| Offsides | 1.29 | 0.08–2.50 | 0.00–2.84 | 1.61 | 0.44–2.77 | 0.11–3.10 | 2.900.00–5.95 |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 | 0.42–2.54 | 0.15–2.81 | 1.93 | 0.81–3.05 | 0.52–3.34 | 3.410.68–6.15 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.20 | 0.78–3.61 | 0.39–4.00 | 3.49 | 1.94–5.05 | 1.51–5.48 | 5.691.90–9.48 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
48%
26%
26%
Shots on target
72%
18%
Total shots
86%
Shots in box
74%
19%
Blocked shots
70%
19%
Corners
69%
21%
Fouls
28%
64%
Offsides
31%
24%
45%
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
22%
15%
63%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+