Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 | 0.88–2.81 | 0.62–3.07 | 1.06 | 0.20–1.92 | 0.00–2.17 | 2.900.58–5.23 |
| Shots on target | 6.45 | 4.59–8.31 | 4.09–8.81 | 3.61 | 1.90–5.31 | 1.43–5.78 | 10.065.52–14.59 |
| Total shots | 17.97 | 14.27–21.68 | 13.24–22.71 | 10.28 | 6.90–13.66 | 5.97–14.59 | 28.2519.21–37.30 |
| Shots in box | 12.25 | 9.73–14.76 | 8.87–15.63 | 6.78 | 4.48–9.08 | 3.68–9.88 | 19.0312.55–25.51 |
| Blocked shots | 5.08 | 3.49–6.66 | 2.96–7.19 | 2.93 | 1.51–4.34 | 1.03–4.83 | 8.003.98–12.02 |
| Corners | 6.68 | 4.48–8.89 | 3.88–9.49 | 3.97 | 1.99–5.95 | 1.45–6.49 | 10.655.34–15.97 |
| Possession % | 58.55 | 52.23–64.86 | 50.63–66.46 | 42.26 | 35.94–48.58 | 34.34–50.18 | — |
| Passes | 522 | 456–587 | 439–605 | 379 | 315–444 | 297–461 | 901736–1066 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.40 | 77.19–85.62 | 75.89–86.92 | 68.81 | 64.30–73.32 | 62.97–74.65 | — |
| Fouls | 10.31 | 7.46–13.17 | 6.57–14.06 | 10.81 | 7.86–13.75 | 6.95–14.67 | 21.1213.52–28.73 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.21–3.31 | 1.85 | 0.69–3.01 | 0.35–3.34 | 3.610.56–6.66 |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 | 0.41–2.53 | 0.14–2.80 | 1.90 | 0.78–3.02 | 0.49–3.31 | 3.370.63–6.11 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.38 | 0.96–3.79 | 0.58–4.18 | 3.68 | 2.13–5.24 | 1.70–5.67 | 6.062.27–9.85 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
23%
22%
Shots on target
77%
14%
Total shots
91%
Shots in box
87%
Blocked shots
72%
17%
Corners
75%
16%
Fouls
41%
50%
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
23%
15%
63%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+