Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 6· · referee: not announced
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 | 0.53–2.45 | 0.27–2.71 | 1.36 | 0.50–2.22 | 0.25–2.46 | 2.850.52–5.18 |
| Shots on target | 4.57 | 2.71–6.42 | 2.21–6.92 | 4.30 | 2.59–6.00 | 2.12–6.47 | 8.864.33–13.39 |
| Total shots | 13.85 | 10.15–17.55 | 9.12–18.58 | 12.22 | 8.85–15.60 | 7.91–16.53 | 26.0717.03–35.12 |
| Shots in box | 9.06 | 6.54–11.57 | 5.68–12.44 | 8.97 | 6.67–11.27 | 5.87–12.07 | 18.0311.55–24.51 |
| Blocked shots | 4.08 | 2.49–5.66 | 1.96–6.19 | 3.55 | 2.13–4.96 | 1.64–5.45 | 7.623.60–11.64 |
| Corners | 5.35 | 3.15–7.56 | 2.55–8.15 | 4.99 | 3.01–6.97 | 2.47–7.50 | 10.345.03–15.66 |
| Possession % | 54.05 | 47.73–60.36 | 46.13–61.96 | 46.14 | 39.82–52.46 | 38.22–54.06 | — |
| Passes | 444 | 379–510 | 361–527 | 377 | 312–441 | 295–459 | 821656–986 |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.58 | 59.37–67.80 | 58.07–69.10 | 61.81 | 57.30–66.32 | 55.97–67.65 | — |
| Fouls | 10.57 | 7.72–13.43 | 6.83–14.32 | 11.33 | 8.38–14.27 | 7.47–15.19 | 21.9014.30–29.51 |
| Offsides | 1.62 | 0.41–2.83 | 0.07–3.18 | 2.67 | 1.50–3.83 | 1.17–4.16 | 4.291.24–7.34 |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 | 0.90–3.02 | 0.63–3.29 | 1.92 | 0.80–3.04 | 0.51–3.33 | 3.881.14–6.62 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.60 | 1.19–4.02 | 0.80–4.41 | 3.26 | 1.70–4.81 | 1.27–5.24 | 5.862.07–9.65 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
25%
35%
Shots on target
47%
14%
40%
Total shots
59%
34%
Shots in box
46%
44%
Blocked shots
50%
14%
35%
Corners
48%
39%
Fouls
39%
52%
Offsides
22%
18%
60%
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
31%
16%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+