Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 | 0.00–1.88 | 0.00–2.14 | 1.90 | 1.04–2.76 | 0.79–3.01 | 2.820.49–5.15 |
| Shots on target | 3.07 | 1.21–4.93 | 0.72–5.43 | 5.61 | 3.90–7.32 | 3.43–7.78 | 8.684.15–13.21 |
| Total shots | 9.37 | 5.66–13.07 | 4.63–14.10 | 15.58 | 12.21–18.96 | 11.28–19.89 | 24.9515.91–33.99 |
| Shots in box | 7.11 | 4.59–9.62 | 3.73–10.49 | 10.37 | 8.07–12.67 | 7.27–13.47 | 17.4811.00–23.96 |
| Blocked shots | 3.33 | 1.75–4.91 | 1.21–5.45 | 3.90 | 2.48–5.31 | 2.00–5.80 | 7.233.21–11.25 |
| Corners | 4.04 | 1.83–6.24 | 1.24–6.84 | 5.15 | 3.17–7.13 | 2.63–7.66 | 9.183.87–14.50 |
| Possession % | 40.05 | 33.73–46.37 | 32.14–47.96 | 61.26 | 54.94–67.58 | 53.35–69.18 | — |
| Passes | 371 | 306–437 | 288–454 | 542 | 478–607 | 460–625 | 914749–1079 |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.53 | 59.31–67.74 | 58.01–69.04 | 76.14 | 71.63–80.65 | 70.30–81.98 | — |
| Fouls | 11.62 | 8.76–14.48 | 7.88–15.36 | 11.43 | 8.48–14.38 | 7.57–15.29 | 23.0515.44–30.66 |
| Offsides | 2.10 | 0.89–3.31 | 0.55–3.66 | 1.41 | 0.24–2.57 | 0.00–2.90 | 3.510.46–6.56 |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 | 0.74–2.85 | 0.47–3.12 | 1.93 | 0.81–3.05 | 0.52–3.34 | 3.720.98–6.46 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.180.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 3.62 | 2.20–5.03 | 1.81–5.42 | 1.96 | 0.40–3.51 | 0.00–3.94 | 5.571.78–9.36 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
18%
22%
60%
Shots on target
15%
76%
Total shots
88%
Shots in box
18%
75%
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
Corners
30%
58%
Fouls
47%
44%
Offsides
54%
21%
25%
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
69%
14%
17%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+