Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 11· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 | 0.18–2.10 | 0.00–2.36 | 1.37 | 0.51–2.23 | 0.27–2.48 | 2.510.19–4.84 |
| Shots on target | 3.72 | 1.86–5.57 | 1.36–6.07 | 4.30 | 2.59–6.00 | 2.12–6.47 | 8.013.48–12.54 |
| Total shots | 11.92 | 8.21–15.62 | 7.18–16.65 | 12.49 | 9.11–15.87 | 8.18–16.80 | 24.4115.36–33.45 |
| Shots in box | 8.29 | 5.77–10.81 | 4.91–11.67 | 8.22 | 5.92–10.52 | 5.12–11.32 | 16.5110.03–22.99 |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 | 1.96–5.13 | 1.43–5.67 | 3.34 | 1.92–4.75 | 1.44–5.24 | 6.882.86–10.90 |
| Corners | 4.36 | 2.15–6.56 | 1.56–7.16 | 5.14 | 3.16–7.12 | 2.62–7.65 | 9.494.18–14.81 |
| Possession % | 51.41 | 45.09–57.73 | 43.50–59.32 | 47.76 | 41.44–54.08 | 39.84–55.67 | — |
| Passes | 451 | 385–516 | 368–533 | 427 | 363–492 | 345–509 | 878713–1043 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.13 | 62.92–71.35 | 61.62–72.65 | 65.41 | 60.90–69.91 | 59.57–71.24 | — |
| Fouls | 11.53 | 8.67–14.39 | 7.79–15.27 | 11.17 | 8.22–14.12 | 7.31–15.03 | 22.7015.10–30.31 |
| Offsides | 1.75 | 0.54–2.96 | 0.20–3.31 | 2.43 | 1.27–3.59 | 0.93–3.92 | 4.181.13–7.23 |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 | 0.68–2.79 | 0.41–3.07 | 1.81 | 0.69–2.93 | 0.40–3.22 | 3.550.81–6.29 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 3.05 | 1.63–4.46 | 1.24–4.85 | 2.46 | 0.91–4.01 | 0.47–4.44 | 5.511.72–9.30 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
27%
42%
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
Total shots
41%
51%
Shots in box
46%
44%
Blocked shots
45%
15%
39%
Corners
34%
54%
Fouls
49%
43%
Offsides
28%
19%
53%
Yellow cards
37%
22%
40%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
51%
17%
32%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+