Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 12· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 | 0.79–2.72 | 0.53–2.98 | 0.99 | 0.13–1.85 | 0.00–2.10 | 2.750.42–5.07 |
| Shots on target | 5.70 | 3.85–7.56 | 3.35–8.06 | 3.02 | 1.31–4.73 | 0.84–5.20 | 8.724.19–13.25 |
| Total shots | 14.66 | 10.96–18.37 | 9.93–19.40 | 8.92 | 5.54–12.30 | 4.61–13.23 | 23.5814.54–32.63 |
| Shots in box | 10.11 | 7.59–12.63 | 6.73–13.49 | 6.93 | 4.63–9.24 | 3.84–10.03 | 17.0410.56–23.52 |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 | 2.72–5.89 | 2.18–6.42 | 2.46 | 1.05–3.88 | 0.56–4.36 | 6.772.75–10.78 |
| Corners | 6.41 | 4.21–8.62 | 3.61–9.21 | 3.85 | 1.87–5.82 | 1.33–6.36 | 10.264.94–15.57 |
| Possession % | 61.43 | 55.11–67.75 | 53.51–69.34 | 39.45 | 33.13–45.77 | 31.53–47.37 | — |
| Passes | 506 | 441–572 | 423–589 | 358 | 294–423 | 276–440 | 865700–1030 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.44 | 73.23–81.66 | 71.93–82.96 | 64.64 | 60.14–69.15 | 58.81–70.48 | — |
| Fouls | 11.43 | 8.57–14.28 | 7.68–15.17 | 13.15 | 10.20–16.09 | 9.28–17.01 | 24.5716.97–32.18 |
| Offsides | 2.23 | 1.02–3.44 | 0.68–3.78 | 3.29 | 2.13–4.46 | 1.80–4.79 | 5.522.47–8.57 |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 | 0.42–2.53 | 0.15–2.80 | 2.27 | 1.15–3.39 | 0.86–3.68 | 3.741.01–6.48 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.15 | 0.74–3.57 | 0.35–3.95 | 3.28 | 1.73–4.83 | 1.29–5.27 | 5.431.64–9.22 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
55%
24%
21%
Shots on target
77%
14%
Total shots
86%
Shots in box
74%
19%
Blocked shots
70%
18%
Corners
74%
17%
Fouls
33%
60%
Offsides
25%
16%
59%
Yellow cards
24%
20%
56%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
24%
16%
60%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+