Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 12· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.88 | 0.00–1.84 | 0.00–2.10 | 2.47 | 1.61–3.33 | 1.36–3.58 | 3.351.02–5.68 |
| Shots on target | 3.44 | 1.58–5.30 | 1.08–5.79 | 6.05 | 4.35–7.76 | 3.88–8.23 | 9.494.96–14.02 |
| Total shots | 10.71 | 7.01–14.42 | 5.98–15.45 | 15.60 | 12.23–18.98 | 11.29–19.91 | 26.3217.27–35.36 |
| Shots in box | 6.62 | 4.11–9.14 | 3.24–10.01 | 11.86 | 9.55–14.16 | 8.76–14.95 | 18.4812.00–24.96 |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 | 1.54–4.71 | 1.00–5.24 | 3.99 | 2.57–5.40 | 2.09–5.89 | 7.113.09–11.13 |
| Corners | 4.14 | 1.93–6.34 | 1.34–6.94 | 6.08 | 4.10–8.06 | 3.56–8.60 | 10.214.90–15.53 |
| Possession % | 40.18 | 33.86–46.49 | 32.26–48.09 | 59.41 | 53.09–65.73 | 51.50–67.33 | — |
| Passes | 366 | 300–431 | 283–449 | 508 | 443–572 | 426–590 | 873708–1039 |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.59 | 58.37–66.80 | 57.07–68.10 | 72.71 | 68.20–77.22 | 66.87–78.55 | — |
| Fouls | 10.51 | 7.65–13.37 | 6.77–14.25 | 11.25 | 8.30–14.19 | 7.38–15.11 | 21.7614.15–29.36 |
| Offsides | 1.87 | 0.66–3.08 | 0.32–3.42 | 2.60 | 1.43–3.76 | 1.10–4.09 | 4.471.42–7.51 |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 | 0.85–2.96 | 0.58–3.23 | 1.83 | 0.71–2.95 | 0.42–3.24 | 3.741.00–6.48 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.59 | 2.18–5.00 | 1.79–5.39 | 2.26 | 0.71–3.81 | 0.27–4.25 | 5.852.06–9.64 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
16%
72%
Shots on target
15%
75%
Total shots
15%
80%
Shots in box
87%
Blocked shots
30%
15%
55%
Corners
22%
67%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
28%
19%
54%
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
63%
15%
22%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+