Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 13· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 | 0.47–2.40 | 0.21–2.66 | 1.10 | 0.24–1.96 | 0.00–2.21 | 2.530.20–4.86 |
| Shots on target | 5.12 | 3.26–6.98 | 2.76–7.47 | 3.23 | 1.53–4.94 | 1.06–5.41 | 8.353.82–12.88 |
| Total shots | 14.84 | 11.14–18.54 | 10.11–19.58 | 10.17 | 6.79–13.55 | 5.86–14.48 | 25.0115.97–34.05 |
| Shots in box | 9.58 | 7.06–12.10 | 6.20–12.96 | 7.69 | 5.39–9.99 | 4.59–10.79 | 17.2710.79–23.75 |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 | 2.53–5.70 | 2.00–6.24 | 3.05 | 1.63–4.46 | 1.15–4.95 | 7.173.15–11.19 |
| Corners | 5.69 | 3.49–7.90 | 2.89–8.49 | 4.34 | 2.36–6.32 | 1.83–6.86 | 10.034.72–15.35 |
| Possession % | 49.27 | 42.96–55.59 | 41.36–57.19 | 49.46 | 43.14–55.78 | 41.54–57.38 | — |
| Passes | 427 | 361–492 | 344–510 | 435 | 370–499 | 353–517 | 861696–1027 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.53 | 61.31–69.75 | 60.01–71.05 | 67.83 | 63.32–72.34 | 61.99–73.67 | — |
| Fouls | 12.41 | 9.55–15.27 | 8.67–16.15 | 11.19 | 8.25–14.14 | 7.33–15.06 | 23.6016.00–31.21 |
| Offsides | 1.72 | 0.51–2.93 | 0.17–3.28 | 1.81 | 0.65–2.97 | 0.31–3.30 | 3.530.48–6.58 |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 | 0.61–2.72 | 0.34–2.99 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.09 | 0.56–3.38 | 3.630.89–6.37 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.11 | 0.70–3.52 | 0.31–3.91 | 2.99 | 1.43–4.54 | 1.00–4.97 | 5.101.31–8.88 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
45%
26%
29%
Shots on target
68%
20%
Total shots
80%
15%
Shots in box
63%
28%
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
Corners
60%
28%
Fouls
56%
36%
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
27%
17%
56%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+