Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 | 0.28–2.20 | 0.02–2.47 | 1.48 | 0.63–2.34 | 0.38–2.59 | 2.730.40–5.06 |
| Shots on target | 4.09 | 2.24–5.95 | 1.74–6.45 | 4.70 | 3.00–6.41 | 2.53–6.88 | 8.804.27–13.33 |
| Total shots | 13.22 | 9.52–16.92 | 8.49–17.96 | 13.12 | 9.75–16.50 | 8.82–17.43 | 26.3517.30–35.39 |
| Shots in box | 8.70 | 6.19–11.22 | 5.32–12.08 | 8.55 | 6.25–10.85 | 5.45–11.65 | 17.2510.77–23.73 |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 | 2.28–5.45 | 1.74–5.98 | 3.28 | 1.86–4.69 | 1.37–5.18 | 7.143.12–11.16 |
| Corners | 4.42 | 2.21–6.62 | 1.62–7.22 | 5.08 | 3.10–7.06 | 2.56–7.59 | 9.504.18–14.81 |
| Possession % | 49.85 | 43.53–56.16 | 41.93–57.76 | 49.45 | 43.13–55.77 | 41.53–57.36 | — |
| Passes | 429 | 363–494 | 346–511 | 416 | 351–481 | 334–498 | 845679–1010 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.98 | 61.76–70.19 | 60.46–71.49 | 67.74 | 63.23–72.24 | 61.90–73.57 | — |
| Fouls | 11.27 | 8.41–14.12 | 7.52–15.01 | 11.24 | 8.30–14.19 | 7.38–15.10 | 22.5114.90–30.11 |
| Offsides | 1.98 | 0.77–3.19 | 0.43–3.54 | 2.31 | 1.14–3.47 | 0.81–3.80 | 4.291.24–7.34 |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 | 0.89–3.00 | 0.61–3.27 | 1.91 | 0.79–3.03 | 0.50–3.32 | 3.851.11–6.59 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.180.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 3.03 | 1.61–4.44 | 1.22–4.83 | 2.74 | 1.18–4.29 | 0.75–4.72 | 5.771.98–9.56 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
25%
43%
Shots on target
35%
13%
51%
Total shots
47%
45%
Shots in box
47%
44%
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
Corners
35%
52%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
34%
20%
46%
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+