Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 | 0.21–2.14 | 0.00–2.40 | 1.75 | 0.89–2.61 | 0.64–2.85 | 2.920.59–5.25 |
| Shots on target | 3.89 | 2.03–5.74 | 1.53–6.24 | 5.29 | 3.58–6.99 | 3.11–7.46 | 9.174.64–13.70 |
| Total shots | 11.69 | 7.98–15.39 | 6.95–16.42 | 14.47 | 11.09–17.85 | 10.16–18.78 | 26.1617.11–35.20 |
| Shots in box | 7.39 | 4.87–9.91 | 4.01–10.77 | 9.25 | 6.95–11.55 | 6.15–12.35 | 16.6410.16–23.12 |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 | 1.73–4.90 | 1.19–5.43 | 3.98 | 2.57–5.39 | 2.08–5.88 | 7.293.27–11.31 |
| Corners | 4.11 | 1.90–6.31 | 1.31–6.91 | 5.60 | 3.62–7.58 | 3.09–8.12 | 9.714.39–15.03 |
| Possession % | 44.44 | 38.13–50.76 | 36.53–52.36 | 54.63 | 48.31–60.95 | 46.71–62.54 | — |
| Passes | 368 | 303–434 | 285–451 | 450 | 385–514 | 367–532 | 818653–983 |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.43 | 59.22–67.65 | 57.92–68.95 | 71.42 | 66.91–75.92 | 65.58–77.25 | — |
| Fouls | 11.43 | 8.57–14.29 | 7.69–15.17 | 10.57 | 7.62–13.51 | 6.71–14.43 | 22.0014.39–29.60 |
| Offsides | 1.70 | 0.49–2.91 | 0.15–3.26 | 2.45 | 1.29–3.61 | 0.96–3.95 | 4.161.11–7.20 |
| Yellow cards | 2.27 | 1.21–3.32 | 0.94–3.59 | 1.73 | 0.61–2.85 | 0.32–3.14 | 4.001.26–6.74 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 3.05 | 1.64–4.47 | 1.25–4.86 | 2.61 | 1.06–4.17 | 0.63–4.60 | 5.671.88–9.46 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
26%
24%
51%
Shots on target
26%
62%
Total shots
26%
67%
Shots in box
28%
63%
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
Corners
26%
62%
Fouls
53%
39%
Offsides
27%
19%
54%
Yellow cards
50%
20%
30%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+