Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 20· · Elindus Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.79 | 0.83–2.75 | 0.57–3.01 | 0.98 | 0.12–1.84 | 0.00–2.09 | 2.770.44–5.10 |
| Shots on target | 5.85 | 3.99–7.70 | 3.49–8.20 | 3.47 | 1.77–5.18 | 1.30–5.65 | 9.324.79–13.85 |
| Total shots | 17.04 | 13.33–20.74 | 12.30–21.77 | 10.81 | 7.43–14.19 | 6.50–15.12 | 27.8518.81–36.89 |
| Shots in box | 12.36 | 9.84–14.88 | 8.98–15.74 | 7.02 | 4.72–9.33 | 3.93–10.12 | 19.3912.91–25.86 |
| Blocked shots | 4.73 | 3.14–6.31 | 2.61–6.85 | 2.73 | 1.32–4.14 | 0.83–4.63 | 7.463.44–11.48 |
| Corners | 6.38 | 4.17–8.58 | 3.58–9.18 | 4.18 | 2.20–6.16 | 1.66–6.69 | 10.565.24–15.87 |
| Possession % | 54.92 | 48.60–61.24 | 47.01–62.83 | 45.56 | 39.24–51.88 | 37.64–53.48 | — |
| Passes | 509 | 444–574 | 426–592 | 403 | 338–468 | 321–485 | 912747–1077 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.29 | 66.08–74.51 | 64.78–75.81 | 68.37 | 63.87–72.88 | 62.54–74.21 | — |
| Fouls | 10.11 | 7.25–12.96 | 6.36–13.85 | 12.11 | 9.16–15.05 | 8.25–15.97 | 22.2214.61–29.82 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.20–3.31 | 1.94 | 0.77–3.10 | 0.44–3.43 | 3.690.65–6.74 |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 | 0.32–2.43 | 0.04–2.70 | 1.92 | 0.80–3.04 | 0.51–3.33 | 3.290.55–6.03 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.27 | 0.86–3.68 | 0.47–4.07 | 3.55 | 2.00–5.11 | 1.57–5.54 | 5.822.03–9.61 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
23%
20%
Shots on target
73%
17%
Total shots
86%
Shots in box
87%
Blocked shots
71%
18%
Corners
70%
20%
Fouls
30%
62%
Offsides
36%
22%
43%
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
23%
15%
63%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+