Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 21· · Het Kuipje· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 | 0.24–2.16 | 0.00–2.42 | 1.91 | 1.05–2.77 | 0.80–3.01 | 3.110.78–5.44 |
| Shots on target | 4.82 | 2.96–6.68 | 2.47–7.18 | 5.36 | 3.66–7.07 | 3.19–7.54 | 10.185.65–14.71 |
| Total shots | 13.61 | 9.91–17.31 | 8.88–18.35 | 14.86 | 11.48–18.24 | 10.55–19.17 | 28.4719.43–37.52 |
| Shots in box | 9.08 | 6.57–11.60 | 5.70–12.46 | 11.42 | 9.12–13.72 | 8.32–14.52 | 20.5014.03–26.98 |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 | 2.41–5.58 | 1.87–6.11 | 3.89 | 2.48–5.31 | 1.99–5.79 | 7.893.87–11.91 |
| Corners | 4.51 | 2.31–6.72 | 1.71–7.32 | 5.81 | 3.83–7.78 | 3.29–8.32 | 10.325.01–15.64 |
| Possession % | 43.08 | 36.76–49.40 | 35.17–50.99 | 56.33 | 50.01–62.64 | 48.41–64.24 | — |
| Passes | 403 | 338–468 | 320–486 | 522 | 458–587 | 440–604 | 925760–1090 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.88 | 62.67–71.10 | 61.37–72.40 | 77.04 | 72.53–81.54 | 71.20–82.87 | — |
| Fouls | 11.28 | 8.42–14.13 | 7.53–15.02 | 10.64 | 7.69–13.58 | 6.78–14.50 | 21.9214.31–29.52 |
| Offsides | 1.85 | 0.64–3.06 | 0.29–3.40 | 2.09 | 0.92–3.25 | 0.59–3.58 | 3.940.89–6.98 |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 | 0.83–2.94 | 0.56–3.21 | 1.67 | 0.55–2.79 | 0.26–3.08 | 3.550.81–6.29 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.17 | 1.76–4.58 | 1.37–4.97 | 2.94 | 1.38–4.49 | 0.95–4.92 | 6.112.32–9.90 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
24%
22%
54%
Shots on target
37%
50%
Total shots
37%
56%
Shots in box
26%
66%
Blocked shots
44%
14%
41%
Corners
29%
60%
Fouls
51%
40%
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
Yellow cards
43%
22%
35%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
45%
16%
38%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+