Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 23· · Cegeka Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 | 0.64–2.57 | 0.38–2.83 | 1.42 | 0.56–2.28 | 0.31–2.52 | 3.020.69–5.35 |
| Shots on target | 5.42 | 3.56–7.28 | 3.07–7.78 | 4.43 | 2.72–6.13 | 2.25–6.60 | 9.855.32–14.38 |
| Total shots | 15.11 | 11.41–18.81 | 10.38–19.85 | 11.90 | 8.52–15.27 | 7.59–16.20 | 27.0117.96–36.05 |
| Shots in box | 10.72 | 8.20–13.23 | 7.34–14.10 | 7.76 | 5.46–10.06 | 4.66–10.86 | 18.4812.00–24.95 |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 | 2.85–6.01 | 2.31–6.55 | 3.09 | 1.68–4.51 | 1.19–4.99 | 7.523.50–11.54 |
| Corners | 5.45 | 3.25–7.66 | 2.65–8.25 | 4.25 | 2.27–6.23 | 1.74–6.77 | 9.704.39–15.02 |
| Possession % | 52.81 | 46.49–59.13 | 44.90–60.72 | 46.37 | 40.05–52.69 | 38.45–54.29 | — |
| Passes | 521 | 456–586 | 438–604 | 422 | 357–486 | 339–504 | 943778–1108 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.00 | 65.78–74.22 | 64.48–75.52 | 70.26 | 65.76–74.77 | 64.42–76.10 | — |
| Fouls | 9.91 | 7.05–12.76 | 6.16–13.65 | 11.47 | 8.53–14.42 | 7.61–15.33 | 21.3813.77–28.98 |
| Offsides | 1.46 | 0.25–2.67 | 0.00–3.01 | 2.07 | 0.91–3.23 | 0.58–3.57 | 3.530.48–6.58 |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 | 0.40–2.51 | 0.13–2.78 | 1.98 | 0.86–3.10 | 0.57–3.39 | 3.430.69–6.17 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.54 | 1.12–3.95 | 0.73–4.34 | 3.33 | 1.77–4.88 | 1.34–5.31 | 5.862.07–9.65 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
42%
24%
34%
Shots on target
56%
32%
Total shots
70%
24%
Shots in box
72%
21%
Blocked shots
62%
13%
25%
Corners
59%
29%
Fouls
33%
59%
Offsides
27%
21%
52%
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+