Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 25· · Cegeka Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 | 0.88–2.80 | 0.62–3.06 | 1.10 | 0.24–1.95 | 0.00–2.20 | 2.930.61–5.26 |
| Shots on target | 5.70 | 3.84–7.56 | 3.34–8.05 | 4.05 | 2.34–5.76 | 1.87–6.23 | 9.755.22–14.28 |
| Total shots | 15.11 | 11.41–18.82 | 10.38–19.85 | 11.88 | 8.50–15.26 | 7.57–16.19 | 26.9917.95–36.04 |
| Shots in box | 10.45 | 7.94–12.97 | 7.07–13.83 | 7.20 | 4.90–9.50 | 4.10–10.30 | 17.6511.18–24.13 |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 | 2.37–5.54 | 1.84–6.07 | 3.30 | 1.89–4.72 | 1.40–5.21 | 7.263.24–11.28 |
| Corners | 5.38 | 3.17–7.58 | 2.58–8.18 | 4.23 | 2.25–6.21 | 1.72–6.75 | 9.614.29–14.92 |
| Possession % | 55.30 | 48.98–61.61 | 47.38–63.21 | 44.28 | 37.96–50.60 | 36.37–52.20 | — |
| Passes | 510 | 445–575 | 427–593 | 398 | 333–462 | 316–480 | 908743–1073 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.21 | 70.99–79.43 | 69.69–80.73 | 73.61 | 69.10–78.12 | 67.77–79.45 | — |
| Fouls | 9.24 | 6.38–12.10 | 5.50–12.98 | 10.65 | 7.70–13.59 | 6.79–14.51 | 19.8912.28–27.49 |
| Offsides | 1.78 | 0.57–2.99 | 0.23–3.34 | 1.78 | 0.62–2.94 | 0.29–3.28 | 3.560.51–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 | 0.43–2.54 | 0.16–2.81 | 1.79 | 0.67–2.91 | 0.38–3.20 | 3.270.53–6.01 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.68 | 1.26–4.09 | 0.87–4.48 | 3.02 | 1.47–4.58 | 1.04–5.01 | 5.701.91–9.49 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
55%
23%
22%
Shots on target
64%
24%
Total shots
70%
24%
Shots in box
74%
18%
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
Corners
58%
30%
Fouls
33%
58%
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+