Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 26· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 | 0.72–2.64 | 0.46–2.90 | 1.09 | 0.23–1.95 | 0.00–2.20 | 2.770.44–5.10 |
| Shots on target | 5.69 | 3.83–7.55 | 3.33–8.04 | 3.65 | 1.95–5.36 | 1.48–5.83 | 9.344.81–13.87 |
| Total shots | 15.23 | 11.52–18.93 | 10.49–19.96 | 10.29 | 6.92–13.67 | 5.98–14.60 | 25.5216.48–34.56 |
| Shots in box | 11.55 | 9.03–14.06 | 8.17–14.93 | 6.85 | 4.55–9.15 | 3.75–9.95 | 18.4011.92–24.88 |
| Blocked shots | 4.90 | 3.32–6.49 | 2.79–7.02 | 2.99 | 1.57–4.40 | 1.09–4.89 | 7.893.87–11.91 |
| Corners | 6.32 | 4.12–8.53 | 3.52–9.12 | 3.71 | 1.73–5.69 | 1.19–6.23 | 10.034.71–15.35 |
| Possession % | 60.51 | 54.19–66.82 | 52.59–68.42 | 39.12 | 32.80–45.44 | 31.20–47.03 | — |
| Passes | 611 | 546–676 | 528–694 | 387 | 322–452 | 305–469 | 998833–1163 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.47 | 74.26–82.69 | 72.96–83.99 | 68.35 | 63.84–72.85 | 62.51–74.19 | — |
| Fouls | 10.69 | 7.83–13.55 | 6.95–14.43 | 10.74 | 7.80–13.69 | 6.88–14.60 | 21.4313.82–29.04 |
| Offsides | 1.65 | 0.44–2.86 | 0.10–3.21 | 1.78 | 0.62–2.94 | 0.28–3.27 | 3.430.38–6.48 |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 | 0.49–2.60 | 0.22–2.87 | 1.93 | 0.81–3.05 | 0.52–3.34 | 3.470.73–6.21 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.29 | 0.88–3.71 | 0.49–4.10 | 2.95 | 1.39–4.50 | 0.96–4.93 | 5.241.45–9.03 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
24%
25%
Shots on target
69%
20%
Total shots
81%
14%
Shots in box
84%
Blocked shots
69%
19%
Corners
75%
16%
Fouls
45%
46%
Offsides
36%
22%
41%
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
30%
17%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+