Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 29· · Cegeka Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 | 0.63–2.55 | 0.37–2.81 | 1.46 | 0.60–2.32 | 0.35–2.56 | 3.050.72–5.38 |
| Shots on target | 5.50 | 3.65–7.36 | 3.15–7.86 | 4.75 | 3.04–6.45 | 2.57–6.92 | 10.255.72–14.78 |
| Total shots | 14.93 | 11.23–18.64 | 10.20–19.67 | 13.56 | 10.18–16.94 | 9.25–17.87 | 28.4919.45–37.54 |
| Shots in box | 10.87 | 8.36–13.39 | 7.49–14.26 | 10.20 | 7.90–12.50 | 7.11–13.30 | 21.0814.60–27.56 |
| Blocked shots | 4.31 | 2.73–5.90 | 2.19–6.43 | 3.62 | 2.21–5.04 | 1.72–5.52 | 7.943.92–11.96 |
| Corners | 4.73 | 2.52–6.93 | 1.93–7.53 | 5.33 | 3.35–7.30 | 2.81–7.84 | 10.054.74–15.37 |
| Possession % | 45.36 | 39.04–51.67 | 37.44–53.27 | 54.43 | 48.12–60.75 | 46.52–62.35 | — |
| Passes | 474 | 409–539 | 391–557 | 517 | 452–582 | 435–599 | 991826–1156 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.97 | 67.76–76.19 | 66.46–77.49 | 78.47 | 73.96–82.98 | 72.63–84.31 | — |
| Fouls | 9.67 | 6.82–12.53 | 5.93–13.42 | 10.17 | 7.22–13.11 | 6.30–14.03 | 19.8412.24–27.45 |
| Offsides | 1.86 | 0.65–3.07 | 0.31–3.42 | 1.78 | 0.62–2.95 | 0.29–3.28 | 3.650.60–6.70 |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 | 0.67–2.78 | 0.40–3.05 | 1.72 | 0.60–2.84 | 0.31–3.13 | 3.450.71–6.19 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.77 | 1.36–4.19 | 0.97–4.58 | 3.10 | 1.54–4.65 | 1.11–5.08 | 5.872.08–9.66 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
41%
24%
35%
Shots on target
53%
35%
Total shots
56%
36%
Shots in box
51%
40%
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
Corners
36%
51%
Fouls
41%
50%
Offsides
41%
22%
38%
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+