Jupiler Pro League· Regular Season - 32· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.88 | 0.00–1.84 | 0.00–2.10 | 2.01 | 1.15–2.87 | 0.90–3.11 | 2.890.56–5.22 |
| Shots on target | 3.71 | 1.85–5.57 | 1.36–6.07 | 5.42 | 3.71–7.13 | 3.24–7.60 | 9.134.60–13.66 |
| Total shots | 11.46 | 7.76–15.17 | 6.73–16.20 | 15.64 | 12.26–19.02 | 11.33–19.95 | 27.1018.06–36.15 |
| Shots in box | 7.05 | 4.53–9.57 | 3.67–10.43 | 11.14 | 8.84–13.44 | 8.04–14.24 | 18.1911.71–24.67 |
| Blocked shots | 3.01 | 1.43–4.60 | 0.89–5.13 | 3.99 | 2.57–5.40 | 2.09–5.89 | 7.002.98–11.02 |
| Corners | 4.39 | 2.19–6.60 | 1.59–7.19 | 5.88 | 3.91–7.86 | 3.37–8.40 | 10.284.96–15.59 |
| Possession % | 43.90 | 37.58–50.22 | 35.98–51.81 | 55.11 | 48.79–61.43 | 47.19–63.02 | — |
| Passes | 398 | 333–463 | 315–481 | 480 | 416–545 | 398–562 | 878713–1043 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.30 | 61.09–69.52 | 59.79–70.82 | 70.39 | 65.89–74.90 | 64.56–76.23 | — |
| Fouls | 10.32 | 7.46–13.17 | 6.58–14.06 | 11.55 | 8.60–14.49 | 7.68–15.41 | 21.8614.26–29.47 |
| Offsides | 1.88 | 0.67–3.09 | 0.33–3.43 | 2.29 | 1.13–3.45 | 0.80–3.79 | 4.171.12–7.22 |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 | 0.65–2.76 | 0.38–3.04 | 1.64 | 0.52–2.76 | 0.23–3.05 | 3.350.61–6.09 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 3.09 | 1.68–4.50 | 1.29–4.89 | 2.45 | 0.89–4.00 | 0.46–4.43 | 5.541.75–9.33 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
16%
21%
64%
Shots on target
23%
65%
Total shots
18%
76%
Shots in box
14%
80%
Blocked shots
29%
14%
57%
Corners
27%
62%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
32%
20%
48%
Yellow cards
40%
23%
37%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
52%
17%
31%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+