Premier League· Regular Season - 8· · referee: not announced
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | actual | Away | safe | safer | actual | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 | 0.91–2.84 | 0.65–3.10 | 3.00 | 0.85 | 0.00–1.71 | 0.00–1.96 | 0.00 | 2.73act. 3.00 |
| Shots on target | 2.65 | 0.79–4.50 | 0.29–5.00 | 9.00 | 4.10 | 2.40–5.81 | 1.93–6.28 | 7.00 | 6.75act. 16.00 |
| Total shots | 11.31 | 7.61–15.02 | 6.58–16.05 | 15.00 | 15.13 | 11.75–18.51 | 10.82–19.44 | 9.00 | 26.45act. 24.00 |
| Shots in box | 9.66 | 7.14–12.18 | 6.28–13.04 | 9.00 | 6.36 | 4.06–8.67 | 3.27–9.46 | 4.00 | 16.02act. 13.00 |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 | 2.19–5.36 | 1.65–5.89 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 1.09–3.91 | 0.60–4.40 | 0.00 | 6.27act. 1.00 |
| Corners | 6.45 | 4.24–8.65 | 3.64–9.25 | 3.00 | 3.59 | 1.62–5.57 | 1.08–6.11 | 5.00 | 10.04act. 8.00 |
| Possession % | 61.39 | 55.08–67.71 | 53.48–69.31 | 65.00 | 36.21 | 29.89–42.53 | 28.29–44.12 | 35.00 | — |
| Passes | 538 | 473–604 | 456–621 | 510 | 322 | 257–386 | 239–404 | 309 | 860act. 819 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.82 | 76.61–85.04 | 75.31–86.34 | — | 64.48 | 59.97–68.98 | 58.64–70.31 | — | — |
| Fouls | 11.60 | 8.74–14.46 | 7.86–15.34 | 11.00 | 13.04 | 10.09–15.98 | 9.17–16.90 | 14.00 | 24.64act. 25.00 |
| Offsides | 1.77 | 0.56–2.98 | 0.21–3.32 | 1.00 | 2.07 | 0.91–3.24 | 0.58–3.57 | 3.00 | 3.84act. 4.00 |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 | 0.77–2.88 | 0.50–3.15 | 2.00 | 2.54 | 1.42–3.66 | 1.13–3.95 | 3.00 | 4.36act. 5.00 |
| Red cards | 0.14 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 1.00 | 0.20act. 1.00 |
| GK saves | 2.27 | 0.85–3.68 | 0.46–4.07 | 7.00 | 2.13 | 0.57–3.68 | 0.14–4.11 | 7.00 | 4.40act. 14.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
61%
22%
17%
Shots on target
22%
14%
64%
Total shots
20%
74%
Shots in box
76%
17%
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
Corners
77%
14%
Fouls
35%
57%
Offsides
34%
21%
46%
Yellow cards
28%
19%
54%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
43%
20%
38%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+