Premier League· Regular Season - 8· · referee: not announced
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.23 | 1.26–3.19 | 1.00–3.45 | 0.66 | 0.00–1.52 | 0.00–1.77 | 2.890.56–5.22 |
| Shots on target | 6.77 | 4.91–8.62 | 4.41–9.12 | 2.34 | 0.64–4.05 | 0.17–4.52 | 9.114.58–13.64 |
| Total shots | 18.94 | 15.23–22.64 | 14.20–23.67 | 8.23 | 4.86–11.61 | 3.92–12.54 | 27.1718.13–36.21 |
| Shots in box | 12.35 | 9.83–14.86 | 8.97–15.73 | 4.92 | 2.61–7.22 | 1.82–8.01 | 17.2610.78–23.74 |
| Blocked shots | 4.84 | 3.26–6.42 | 2.72–6.96 | 2.48 | 1.07–3.89 | 0.58–4.38 | 7.323.30–11.34 |
| Corners | 7.08 | 4.88–9.29 | 4.28–9.88 | 3.42 | 1.45–5.40 | 0.91–5.94 | 10.515.19–15.82 |
| Possession % | 58.89 | 52.57–65.21 | 50.98–66.81 | 41.37 | 35.05–47.69 | 33.45–49.29 | — |
| Passes | 494 | 429–560 | 411–577 | 361 | 296–425 | 279–443 | 855690–1020 |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.43 | 80.22–88.65 | 78.92–89.95 | 76.02 | 71.51–80.52 | 70.18–81.85 | — |
| Fouls | 10.61 | 7.76–13.47 | 6.87–14.36 | 16.57 | 13.63–19.52 | 12.71–20.44 | 27.1919.58–34.79 |
| Offsides | 1.42 | 0.21–2.63 | 0.00–2.97 | 1.34 | 0.18–2.51 | 0.00–2.84 | 2.760.00–5.81 |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 | 0.54–2.65 | 0.27–2.92 | 2.68 | 1.56–3.80 | 1.27–4.09 | 4.281.54–7.01 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.14 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.00–0.48 | 0.200.00–0.84 |
| GK saves | 1.59 | 0.18–3.01 | 0.00–3.39 | 4.14 | 2.59–5.70 | 2.16–6.13 | 5.731.94–9.52 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
73%
17%
Shots on target
91%
Total shots
98%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
76%
14%
Corners
84%
Fouls
85%
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
Yellow cards
22%
18%
61%
Red cards
83%
GK saves
81%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+