Premier League· Regular Season - 9· · Arena Khimki· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 | 0.37–2.30 | 0.11–2.56 | 1.23 | 0.37–2.09 | 0.13–2.34 | 2.570.24–4.90 |
| Shots on target | 4.92 | 3.06–6.77 | 2.56–7.27 | 3.68 | 1.97–5.38 | 1.50–5.85 | 8.594.06–13.12 |
| Total shots | 14.35 | 10.65–18.05 | 9.62–19.08 | 11.33 | 7.95–14.70 | 7.02–15.64 | 25.6816.63–34.72 |
| Shots in box | 8.82 | 6.30–11.34 | 5.44–12.20 | 8.20 | 5.89–10.50 | 5.10–11.29 | 17.0210.54–23.49 |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 | 2.03–5.20 | 1.49–5.73 | 3.30 | 1.88–4.71 | 1.39–5.20 | 6.912.89–10.93 |
| Corners | 5.71 | 3.50–7.91 | 2.91–8.51 | 4.70 | 2.72–6.67 | 2.18–7.21 | 10.405.09–15.72 |
| Possession % | 45.63 | 39.31–51.95 | 37.72–53.55 | 56.66 | 50.34–62.98 | 48.75–64.58 | — |
| Passes | 374 | 309–440 | 291–457 | 433 | 368–497 | 351–515 | 807642–972 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.70 | 61.48–69.92 | 60.18–71.22 | 66.76 | 62.26–71.27 | 60.93–72.60 | — |
| Fouls | 11.44 | 8.58–14.29 | 7.69–15.18 | 12.60 | 9.65–15.54 | 8.74–16.46 | 24.0416.43–31.64 |
| Offsides | 1.90 | 0.69–3.11 | 0.35–3.46 | 2.47 | 1.30–3.63 | 0.97–3.96 | 4.371.32–7.42 |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 | 0.85–2.97 | 0.58–3.24 | 1.79 | 0.67–2.91 | 0.38–3.20 | 3.700.96–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.190.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.43 | 1.01–3.84 | 0.62–4.23 | 3.19 | 1.64–4.75 | 1.21–5.18 | 5.621.83–9.41 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
27%
34%
Shots on target
60%
27%
Total shots
69%
24%
Shots in box
51%
39%
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
Corners
56%
32%
Fouls
37%
55%
Offsides
30%
19%
51%
Yellow cards
42%
22%
37%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
29%
16%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+