Premier League· Regular Season - 12· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 | 0.29–2.22 | 0.03–2.48 | 1.01 | 0.15–1.87 | 0.00–2.12 | 2.260.00–4.59 |
| Shots on target | 5.22 | 3.36–7.08 | 2.86–7.57 | 1.30 | 0.00–3.00 | 0.00–3.47 | 6.521.99–11.05 |
| Total shots | 14.76 | 11.06–18.47 | 10.03–19.50 | 9.56 | 6.18–12.94 | 5.25–13.87 | 24.3215.28–33.36 |
| Shots in box | 8.56 | 6.04–11.07 | 5.18–11.94 | 6.33 | 4.03–8.63 | 3.23–9.43 | 14.898.41–21.37 |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 | 2.21–5.37 | 1.67–5.91 | 2.63 | 1.22–4.05 | 0.73–4.53 | 6.422.40–10.44 |
| Corners | 6.51 | 4.31–8.72 | 3.71–9.31 | 3.84 | 1.86–5.82 | 1.33–6.36 | 10.355.04–15.67 |
| Possession % | 49.88 | 43.56–56.19 | 41.96–57.79 | 50.38 | 44.06–56.70 | 42.46–58.30 | — |
| Passes | 426 | 361–491 | 343–509 | 412 | 347–476 | 329–494 | 838673–1003 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.12 | 61.91–70.34 | 60.61–71.64 | 65.33 | 60.83–69.84 | 59.50–71.17 | — |
| Fouls | 11.82 | 8.96–14.68 | 8.08–15.56 | 12.68 | 9.73–15.62 | 8.81–16.54 | 24.5016.89–32.10 |
| Offsides | 2.06 | 0.85–3.27 | 0.51–3.62 | 1.70 | 0.53–2.86 | 0.20–3.19 | 3.760.71–6.81 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.55–2.66 | 0.28–2.93 | 2.13 | 1.01–3.25 | 0.72–3.54 | 3.741.00–6.48 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 1.83 | 0.42–3.25 | 0.03–3.64 | 3.51 | 1.95–5.06 | 1.52–5.49 | 5.341.55–9.13 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
42%
28%
30%
Shots on target
92%
Total shots
83%
Shots in box
67%
24%
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
Corners
75%
16%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
47%
21%
32%
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
17%
14%
69%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+